Game Recap: OTT 4, UTA 0, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

UTA0

OTT beat UTA 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.99 expected goals to 3.53. UTA outshot OTT 31 to 22. N. Jensen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Cousins had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Forsberg stopped 31 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	4	0	0	4
UTA	0	0	0	0

1st 11:43OTTD. Batherson0.06 xG
1st 13:06OTTC. Giroux0.21 xG
1st 18:05OTTR. GreigPP0.18 xG
1st 19:52OTTB. Tkachuk0.45 xG

Team Stats

OTTUTA

22Shots on goal31

2.99Expected goals3.53

46Shot attempts72

185v5 shots on goal26

1/1Power play0/2

38Hits29

16Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways17

9Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.99 xGUTA 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT22 on goal, 4 scored

UTA31 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:55	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:54	0:15
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	1	4	2	+1	0	15:27	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	15:11	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:04	0:00
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	14:52	0:15
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	2	17:22	0:15
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:32	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:01	0:15
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	10:46	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:02	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+3	0	20:28	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+3	2	22:07	0:15
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	23:44	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	22:01	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:53	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	31	31	0	1.000	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	3	0	2	-2	0	19:07	2:44
N. Schmaltz	C	1	1	0	-2	0	19:04	2:43
L. Crouse	LW	3	0	1	0	0	17:02	1:45
J. Doan	RW	3	2	1	0	0	16:36	1:17
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	16:22	0:00
B. Hayton	C	3	1	0	0	0	15:39	2:12
L. Cooley	C	0	1	0	-1	0	14:03	1:17
D. Guenther	RW	4	0	0	-1	2	13:56	2:05
M. Maccelli	LW	4	0	0	0	0	13:15	1:48
J. McBain	C	1	7	0	0	2	12:29	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	2	4	0	-1	0	11:38	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	2	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	3	1	3	-1	0	22:36	2:20
M. Kesselring	D	1	3	1	-1	0	20:36	0:09
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	-2	0	19:48	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	2	1	0	-2	0	19:45	1:40
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	2	0	0	0	18:30	0:00
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	3	3	0	2	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	8	4	4	.500	20:00	Loss
K. Vejmelka	14	14	0	1.000	39:58

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.3, UTA 3.5	OTT 4, UTA 0
Total goals	6.8	4
Shots on goal	OTT 31.4, UTA 28.7	OTT 22, UTA 31
Win chance	UTA 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	2	0.91	1	32%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.8	3	1.05	0	35%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.6	4	0.79	0	30%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	2	0.77	1	26%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	1	0.90	1	27%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	0	0.53	0	20%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	1	0.94	0	28%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	3	0.52	0	20%	0
OTT J. Norris	1.9	1	0.63	1	29%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	2	0.76	1	25%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	2	0.52	1	13%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	0	0.58	0	21%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	1	0.55	0	10%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	3	0.79	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	3	0.49	0	23%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.6	1	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	3	0.58	0	21%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	1	0.39	0	19%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.4	0	0.52	0	16%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	4	0.58	0	15%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	1	0.49	0	10%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	2	0.38	1	16%	1
OTT T. Hamonic	1.1	1	0.20	0	6%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.1	2	0.40	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	4	0.22	0	9%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	0	0.18	0	7%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	2	0.19	0	13%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.16	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.26	2	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.9	1	0.37	0	14%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.7	1	0.12	0	6%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.7	0	0.23	0	6%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.