Game Recap: OTT 1, UTA 3, January 7, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT1

FinalWed, Jan 7, 2026Every game that night

UTA3

UTA beat OTT 3-1, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 3.05. OTT outshot UTA 33 to 21. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Greig had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Vejmelka stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	0	0	1
UTA	2	0	1	3

1st 3:59UTAL. Crouse0.17 xG
1st 7:20UTAJ. Marino0.24 xG
1st 17:41OTTR. Greig0.51 xG
3rd 5:41UTAD. But0.39 xG

Team Stats

OTTUTA

33Shots on goal21

3.05Expected goals3.03

69Shot attempts46

175v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/4

26Hits20

13Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways20

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.05 xGUTA 3.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT31 on goal, 1 scored

UTA19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	0	17:13	0:08
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	24:29	3:41
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	18:59	1:05
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	18:13	3:16
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	17:49	3:17
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	-3	2	17:38	3:18
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	16:24	0:56
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:57	0:02
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:24	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:37	1:11
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:53	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	7:16	1:11
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	26:12	3:13
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	19:25	0:09
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:18	1:23
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:01	0:02
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:55	0:08
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	21	18	3	.857	57:34	Loss
M. Sogaard	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	2	22:31	4:38
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	3	2	2	+2	0	17:51	1:49
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:30	0:00
D. But	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:32	1:54
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	2	7	3	+1	0	10:12	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	2	20:29	4:42
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	16:50	4:42
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	15:57	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:57	1:56
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:53	1:53
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:59	4:32
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	25:20	4:51
J. Marino	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	20:14	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	17:36	0:11
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	23:12	1:47
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:53	0:05
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio12:46R. Greig13:02C. Giroux12:42

Line 2T. Stützle15:16D. Batherson12:36D. Cozens13:33

Line 3S. Pinto10:10B. Tkachuk12:15F. Zetterlund10:56

Line 4D. Perron7:54N. Cousins7:53S. Halliday6:05

Pair 1N. Jensen15:38T. Chabot17:28

Pair 2A. Zub14:24J. Sanderson16:32

Pair 3J. Spence14:07T. Kleven11:33

UTA

Line 1C. Keller15:45N. Schmaltz12:28L. Crouse12:32

Line 2D. But11:16M. Carcone9:36J. McBain10:33

Line 3B. Hayton11:20D. Guenther11:00J. Peterka6:27

Line 4A. Kerfoot13:12B. Tanev9:43K. Yamamoto11:03

Pair 1S. Durzi20:02M. Sergachev16:46

Pair 2J. Marino17:27N. Schmidt13:43

Pair 3I. Cole12:52N. DeSimone9:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, UTA 3.1	OTT 1, UTA 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	OTT 25.5, UTA 26.8	OTT 33, UTA 21
Win chance	UTA 54%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	2	0.74	0	29%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	1	0.86	0	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	1.00	2	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	1	0.89	0	27%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	0	0.80	0	28%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	2	0.94	0	28%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	3	0.58	1	11%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	2	0.61	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	4	0.77	0	26%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	2	0.47	0	21%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	3	0.51	1	24%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	2	0.56	0	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	0	0.46	0	10%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	3	0.62	1	12%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	0	0.43	0	16%	0
UTA D. But	1.6	2	0.23	1	12%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	2	0.47	0	10%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	1	0.34	0	15%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	4	0.60	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	6	0.35	1	14%	1
OTT D. Perron	1.4	1	0.46	0	19%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.38	0	17%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.31	1	13%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	0	0.29	0	4%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.29	1	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.13	0	3%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	2	0.22	1	5%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.9	1	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	2	0.29	0	6%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.8	0	0.27	0	12%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.34	1	4%	1
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	2	0.16	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.