Game Recap: OTT 4, VGK 3 (SO), November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT4

Final/SOWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

OTT beat VGK 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.79 expected goals to 4.56. VGK outshot OTT 35 to 22. J. Sanderson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Kleven had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Ullmark stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
OTT	3	0	0	1	4
VGK	1	1	1	0	3

1st 0:51OTTS. Pinto0.02 xG
1st 13:04OTTJ. SandersonPP0.07 xG
1st 16:52VGKB. Howden0.17 xG
1st 19:43OTTD. Batherson0.28 xG
2nd 2:09VGKJ. Eichel0.54 xG
3rd 6:40VGKM. StonePP0.45 xG

Team Stats

OTTVGK

22Shots on goal35

1.79Expected goals4.56

55Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play1/3

26Hits33

10Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.79 xGVGK 4.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT22 on goal, 3 scored

VGK35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	0	2	0	+1	0	23:31	3:18
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	2	21:50	3:20
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	2	9	1	-1	0	22:01	1:51
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	20:01	3:05
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	18:42	0:08
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	17:40	3:15
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:19	0:11
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	13:14	1:22
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:52	1:25
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:02	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:38	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	6:59	1:04
J. Sanderson	D	1	2	3	3	0	1	+1	0	28:01	3:28
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	22:13	0:33
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:10	0:12
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:12	1:13
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	35	32	3	.914	64:48	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	26:48	4:41
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	2	20:20	4:41
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	19:58	4:41
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	6	1	0	19:23	0:52
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	17:53	0:44
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	17:34	0:45
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:30	4:31
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:20	4:36
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:08	0:02
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	10:45	0:03
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:36	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:58	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	28:26	0:47
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	27:10	0:57
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	23:48	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	17:35	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	12:04	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	22	19	3	.864	64:35	OT loss
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio16:32S. Pinto15:39C. Giroux14:20

Line 2T. Stützle13:41D. Batherson14:34D. Perron10:15

Line 3D. Cozens13:36F. Zetterlund11:52L. Eller11:48

Line 4N. Cousins10:02H. Hodgson8:38S. Halliday5:55

Pair 1T. Kleven19:14J. Spence15:56

Pair 2A. Zub17:52J. Sanderson17:38

Pair 3N. Jensen14:03N. Matinpalo13:35

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel16:58B. Bowman16:44I. Barbashev17:29

Line 2M. Stone11:29M. Marner12:48B. Howden12:55

Line 3C. Sissons10:35K. Kolesar9:52R. Smith9:07

Line 4B. Saad10:06P. Dorofeyev9:59T. Hertl8:35

Pair 1B. McNabb20:09S. Theodore21:28

Pair 2N. Hanifin21:53Z. Whitecloud15:43

Pair 3B. Hutton7:16K. Korczak12:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael Amadio OTT Faces VGK, his team until May 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.6, VGK 3.2	OTT 4, VGK 3
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	OTT 24.3, VGK 28.5	OTT 22, VGK 35
Win chance	VGK 60%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	3	1.11	1	32%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.0	3	0.69	0	34%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	1	0.79	0	30%	0
VGK B. Bowman	2.2	2	0.76	1	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	0	0.83	2	26%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	1	0.71	1	24%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	4	0.56	0	20%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	2	0.55	1	24%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.0	3	0.92	1	26%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	3	0.50	3	9%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	4	0.63	1	8%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	3	0.45	0	9%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	4	1.14	1	29%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	2	0.37	0	16%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	1	0.61	2	20%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	0	0.39	0	19%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	3	0.42	0	16%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.3	0	0.45	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	2	0.58	1	22%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	3	0.41	1	20%	1
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	0	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	2	0.39	0	19%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	0	0.34	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	4	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	2	0.25	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.6	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.