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Game Recap
OTT1
FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night
VGK4

VGK beat OTT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.57 expected goals to 2.40. J. Lauzon had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Hill stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT0011
VGK0134
  1. 2nd 19:49VGKB. BowmanPP0.25 xG
  2. 3rd 0:34OTTS. PintoPP0.26 xG
  3. 3rd 8:01VGKR. Lavoie0.09 xG
  4. 3rd 18:00VGKW. KarlssonEN0.91 xG
  5. 3rd 19:53VGKJ. EichelEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

OTTVGK
26Shots on goal29
2.40Expected goals4.57
67Shot attempts54
185v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/2
24Hits14
6Blocked shots24
6Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways23
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.40 xGVGK 4.57 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdVGK goal, 19:49OTT goal, 0:34VGK goal, 8:01VGK goal, 18:00VGK goal, 19:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT25 on goal, 1 scored
VGK27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. PintoC101400-2023:063:13
D. BathersonRW011130-2017:253:24
T. StützleC000110-2022:473:21
C. GirouxRW000100-1017:471:14
D. CozensC000140-2217:301:21
R. GreigC000120-1015:520:17
F. ZetterlundLW0001610015:071:10
M. AmadioRW0002300214:010:00
S. HallidayC000220-1012:563:20
W. FoegeleLW0001100011:360:00
A. BurakovskyLW000000-109:240:57
N. CousinsC000010007:100:00
J. SandersonD000400-1026:383:38
T. KlevenD000102-1020:250:00
J. SpenceD000011-1020:040:00
A. ZubD0002000218:370:00
C. YakemchukD000201-1015:070:56
N. MatinpaloD000201-1012:430:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Johansson27252.92658:07Loss
S. Ersson000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW011200+1021:403:27
J. EichelC101100+1021:163:33
M. StoneRW011301+1020:082:57
W. KarlssonC101103+1020:070:40
I. BarbashevLW011121+1218:400:36
T. ConnellyLW011200+1014:463:02
B. BowmanRW1013000011:350:41
N. DowdC011032+109:060:00
R. LavoieC101100+108:200:00
B. HowdenC0001110214:090:00
T. HertlC0002300012:562:58
M. GatcombC000231+109:240:00
S. TheodoreD011100+1021:130:16
V. HeinolaD011102+1014:310:00
N. HanifinD000202+1022:180:00
B. McNabbD000103+1021:050:00
R. AnderssonD000005+1018:320:00
J. LauzonD000523+1415:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill26251.96260:00Win
C. Whitehead000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1R. Greig13:46M. Amadio13:47S. Pinto15:34
Line 2C. Giroux14:27F. Zetterlund13:57T. Stützle15:45
Line 3D. Cozens14:17D. Batherson12:09W. Foegele11:03
Line 4A. Burakovsky8:27S. Halliday9:36N. Cousins7:10
Pair 1J. Spence19:22T. Kleven17:51
Pair 2J. Sanderson20:03A. Zub17:55
Pair 3C. Yakemchuk14:11N. Matinpalo10:20

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev16:47J. Eichel15:03M. Stone14:32
Line 2W. Karlsson15:58M. Marner14:54B. Howden13:52
Line 3B. Bowman10:54T. Hertl9:58T. Connelly11:09
Line 4N. Dowd8:40M. Gatcomb9:24R. Lavoie8:20
Pair 1B. McNabb17:08S. Theodore17:01
Pair 2R. Andersson18:15V. Heinola14:31
Pair 3N. Hanifin19:48J. Lauzon13:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 22 overs hit (36%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
OTT D. Batherson2.5+140-1901Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+125-1401Under
VGK J. Eichel2.5-115+1101Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+134-1502Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+130-1602Under
VGK B. Bowman1.5+110-1353Over
VGK B. Howden1.5-110-1201Under
VGK B. McNabb1.5+160-2201Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-105-1151Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.5+110-1602Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-110+1051Under
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+105-1351Under
OTT J. Sanderson1.5-135+1054Over
VGK M. Stone1.5-150+1453Over
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+125-1402Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5-120–0Under
OTT S. Halliday1.5+135–2Over
OTT S. Pinto1.5-130+1154Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-120+1151Under
VGK T. Connelly1.5-140+1152Over
OTT T. Stützle1.5-164+1301Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-135+1201Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 2.9, VGK 3.5OTT 1, VGK 4
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalOTT 25.5, VGK 26.8OTT 26, VGK 29
Win chanceVGK 60%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel2.611.17131%1
OTT D. Cozens2.310.59022%0
OTT T. Stützle2.210.95030%0
VGK M. Marner2.021.13130%0
VGK T. Hertl2.020.70026%0
OTT D. Batherson1.910.72126%0
OTT S. Pinto1.940.56124%1
VGK W. Karlsson1.910.67125%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.910.40017%0
VGK M. Stone1.931.00132%0
OTT J. Sanderson1.740.5409%0
VGK S. Theodore1.710.64113%0
VGK T. Connelly1.720.61121%0
OTT C. Giroux1.710.59019%0
VGK B. Howden1.610.61027%0
OTT R. Greig1.610.42017%0
OTT W. Foegele1.610.33017%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.510.68123%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.420.24014%0
OTT S. Halliday1.320.38013%0
VGK R. Andersson1.300.37010%0
VGK B. Bowman1.330.49117%1
OTT T. Kleven1.210.2505%0
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.220.2705%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.220.3808%0
OTT J. Spence1.200.3306%0
VGK B. McNabb1.110.3406%0
OTT M. Amadio1.020.38017%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.010.1818%1
VGK J. Lauzon1.050.1604%0
VGK V. Heinola1.010.1813%0
OTT A. Zub0.920.2604%0
OTT A. Burakovsky0.800.32012%0
VGK N. Dowd0.800.27112%0
OTT N. Cousins0.700.1907%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.620.1102%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.