Game Recap: OTT 7, WSH 1, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT7

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

WSH1

OTT beat WSH 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.00 expected goals to 1.84. OTT outshot WSH 34 to 13. D. Cozens led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	3	3	7
WSH	0	0	1	1

1st 1:58OTTD. Cozens0.05 xG
2nd 3:27OTTS. Pinto0.60 xG
2nd 4:27OTTD. CozensPP0.22 xG
2nd 6:22OTTN. Cousins0.29 xG
3rd 0:55OTTD. BathersonPP0.05 xG
3rd 5:04WSHT. van Riemsdyk0.20 xG
3rd 9:47OTTT. ChabotPP0.07 xG
3rd 14:22OTTD. Batherson0.20 xG

Team Stats

OTTWSH

34Shots on goal13

5.00Expected goals1.84

57Shot attempts53

255v5 shots on goal11

3/4Power play0/2

12Hits28

23Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways12

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 5.00 xGWSH 1.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT34 on goal, 7 scored

WSH12 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Cozens	C	2	1	3	7	1	2	0	0	19:44	3:40
D. Batherson	RW	2	1	3	4	1	0	+1	0	11:47	3:38
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	15:42	2:12
D. Perron	LW	0	2	2	2	2	0	+1	0	15:41	1:16
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	14:22	3:42
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	2	17:58	1:56
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	2	14:22	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	18:23	2:07
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:01	1:18
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	0	14:28	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	13:56	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	5:05	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+4	0	18:12	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	22:24	1:23
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	21:49	3:35
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:06	0:03
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:01	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	13	12	1	.923	59:15	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:32	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:36	1:01
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:23	1:23
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	18:24	2:56
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	17:44	3:48
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	15:05	1:02
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:58	0:09
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:47	2:03
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	14:24	0:21
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:42	0:06
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:23	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:34	0:29
T. van Riemsdyk	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:32	0:18
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	24:46	2:26
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	21:21	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	21:05	3:07
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	4	19:46	0:00
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	34	27	7	.794	59:55	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Perron13:40D. Cozens14:19R. Greig12:52

Line 2L. Eller13:38F. Zetterlund14:09N. Cousins13:55

Line 3M. Amadio13:56S. Pinto12:54C. Giroux11:58

Line 4D. Batherson7:27T. Stützle7:23

Pair 1N. Jensen17:41T. Chabot17:39

Pair 2T. Kleven15:29N. Matinpalo15:52

Pair 3J. Sanderson13:55A. Zub13:48

WSH

Line 1N. Dowd12:39B. Duhaime10:54A. Beauvillier13:12

Line 2P. Dubois13:33T. Wilson13:05A. Protas14:59

Line 3J. Sourdif13:42R. Leonard13:11A. Ovechkin13:09

Line 4C. McMichael10:42H. Lapierre10:29

Pair 1J. Chychrun18:30M. Roy16:07

Pair 2J. Carlson14:50M. Fehérváry16:51

Pair 3D. McIlrath13:35T. Riemsdyk14:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJakob Chychrun WSH Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, WSH 3.1	OTT 7, WSH 1
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	OTT 26.9, WSH 27.1	OTT 34, WSH 13
Win chance	WSH 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	1	0.92	0	38%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	0	0.59	0	17%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	7	0.58	3	21%	2
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	2	0.82	2	25%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	2	0.77	0	30%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	4	0.60	1	26%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	0	0.49	1	10%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	4	0.66	3	23%	2
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	1	0.50	1	12%	1
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.63	0	11%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	1	0.76	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	0	0.52	0	22%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	1	0.34	0	15%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	0	0.86	0	26%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	1	0.27	1	14%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	2	0.64	0	22%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	2	0.49	2	21%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.6	6	0.31	0	14%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.41	0	16%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	0	0.56	2	19%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.34	0	17%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.2	0	0.22	0	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	2	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	1	0.23	1	9%	1
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.30	0	7%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.32	1	16%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.22	2	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	2	0.21	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.09	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.32	0	10%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.18	1	2%	1
WSH D. McIlrath	0.5	0	0.15	0	2%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.4	1	0.07	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.