Game Recap: PHI 3, ANA 1, December 28, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

ANA1

PHI beat ANA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.58. ANA outshot PHI 33 to 25. M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Ersson stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	2	3
ANA	0	1	0	1

2nd 4:03PHIN. Cates0.18 xG
2nd 15:38ANAT. Terry0.07 xG
3rd 5:57PHIM. Frost0.03 xG
3rd 17:40PHIJ. FarabeeEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

PHIANA

25Shots on goal33

3.83Expected goals2.58

58Shot attempts64

195v5 shots on goal20

0/5Power play0/4

15Hits18

16Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.83 xGANA 2.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 3 scored

ANA32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	4	1	3	0	0	19:42	3:32
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:52	0:05
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:53	3:19
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:22	3:12
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	11:59	0:40
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:17	3:01
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:23	2:29
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:27	3:24
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	15:28	3:02
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:41	0:43
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:01	1:41
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:25	0:12
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	19:31	1:16
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:34	2:47
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:24	2:03
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	18:30	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:03	3:11
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:28	0:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	2	19:56	4:31
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	5	3	0	-1	2	19:25	4:33
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:13	4:33
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	18:05	2:31
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	16:23	4:28
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	6	4	0	+1	0	15:48	1:20
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:22	1:25
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:13	1:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	13:19	0:27
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:11	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	20:36	1:17
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	0	2	16:48	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	21:39	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	20:10	4:40
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:06	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	15:49	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	24	22	2	.917	57:52	Loss
C. Clang	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJamie Drysdale PHI Faces ANA, his team until Jan 20241 SOG
Old teamRyan Poehling ANA Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.2, ANA 3.1	PHI 3, ANA 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	PHI 31.1, ANA 26.8	PHI 25, ANA 33
Win chance	PHI 52%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	5	0.73	0	32%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.8	1	1.06	0	35%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	2	0.65	0	27%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	2	0.91	1	31%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.1	3	0.55	0	18%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.0	2	0.53	0	16%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.0	4	0.49	1	19%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.9	0	0.51	0	12%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	1	0.72	0	23%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.8	3	0.50	1	17%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	6	0.66	0	24%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	1	0.49	0	23%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	1	0.66	0	26%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	0	0.42	0	9%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	1	0.53	1	17%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.6	2	0.61	0	19%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.6	2	0.61	0	27%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.46	1	16%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	3	0.41	0	17%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	2	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	0	0.36	1	9%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	1	0.26	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	1	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	3	0.47	0	19%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	2	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	4	0.42	1	15%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.1	1	0.39	1	9%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.34	0	13%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	1	0.38	0	9%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	1	0.25	1	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.9	0	0.32	0	7%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.