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Game Recap
PHI3
BOS4
BOS beat PHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.35 expected goals to 2.57. T. Frederic led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Swayman stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 7:24PHIM. MichkovPP0.21 xG
- 1st 18:24PHIM. Michkov0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:26BOST. FredericPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:29PHIC. York0.12 xG
- 3rd 5:18BOST. Frederic0.22 xG
- 3rd 14:38BOSB. Marchand0.21 xG
- OT 2:49BOSP. Zacha0.16 xG
Team Stats
PHIBOS
26Shots on goal31
2.57Expected goals3.35
47Shot attempts61
225v5 shots on goal14
1/2Power play1/6
18Hits33
18Blocked shots9
14Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways18
1Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.57 xGBOS 3.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:23 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:36 | 1:23 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:29 | 1:23 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:48 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:48 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:48 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:07 | 1:06 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:51 | 0:48 |
| C. York | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23:11 | 0:17 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:17 | 1:06 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 0:17 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 62:49 | OT loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Frederic | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 4:48 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:57 | 8:13 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 6:56 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 6:20 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 5:14 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 4:58 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 3:31 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:13 | 0:01 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 7:07 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 5:07 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 22:51 | 6:51 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:04 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:17 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 62:12 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.5, BOS 3.1 | PHI 3, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 28.6, BOS 27.1 | PHI 26, BOS 31 |
| Win chance | BOS 60% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.8 | 3 | 1.23 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.9 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.3 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. McLaughlin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.