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Game Recap
PHI4
CHI7
CHI beat PHI 7-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 3.50. T. Bertuzzi led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Donato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Knight stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| CHI | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
- 1st 3:59PHIJ. Drysdale0.01 xG
- 1st 7:14CHIP. Maroon0.12 xG
- 1st 8:01CHIJ. Veleno0.09 xG
- 1st 8:13PHIT. Sanheim0.03 xG
- 1st 11:59PHIB. Brink0.70 xG
- 1st 18:12CHIC. Bedard0.13 xG
- 2nd 2:37CHIT. Bertuzzi0.27 xG
- 2nd 6:43CHIR. DonatoPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:14PHIT. Konecny0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:27CHIR. DonatoPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 2:13CHIL. Reichel0.09 xG
Team Stats
PHICHI
29Shots on goal29
3.50Expected goals2.95
62Shot attempts54
265v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play2/4
24Hits17
18Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways21
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.50 xGCHI 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 3:13 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:19 | 3:13 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:33 | 3:08 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:06 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:46 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:47 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:06 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:22 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:54 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 2:37 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:55 | 0:53 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:11 | 0:55 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 29 | 22 | 7 | .759 | 59:41 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:29 | 3:34 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:36 |
| R. Donato | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:36 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 4:05 |
| J. Veleno | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:38 | 1:30 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 1:28 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:14 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:45 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 1:28 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 1:20 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:44 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 59:46 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.1, CHI 2.8 | PHI 4, CHI 7 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 29.1, CHI 23.0 | PHI 29, CHI 29 |
| Win chance | PHI 55% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 1 | 0.96 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.3 | 4 | 0.60 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 6 | 0.76 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 4 | 0.76 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI R. Abols | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.