Game Recap: PHI 3, EDM 4 (OT), October 15, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTTue, Oct 15, 2024Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat PHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.94. M. Michkov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Henrique had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	2	1	0	0	3
EDM	0	2	1	1	4

1st 4:46PHIM. MichkovPP0.13 xG
1st 9:21PHIM. MichkovPP0.10 xG
2nd 6:26EDMA. Henrique0.05 xG
2nd 14:01EDMC. Brown0.15 xG
2nd 19:37PHIB. Brink0.01 xG
3rd 16:18EDME. Bouchard0.13 xG
OT 0:56EDML. Draisaitl0.36 xG

Team Stats

PHIEDM

30Shots on goal31

2.94Expected goals3.93

52Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal25

2/7Power play0/4

21Hits23

21Blocked shots9

18Penalty minutes20

9Giveaways12

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.94 xGEDM 3.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI29 on goal, 3 scored

EDM30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	2	0	2	5	1	2	-1	0	18:03	8:26
M. Frost	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	16:31	8:09
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	-2	2	24:03	7:51
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	16:15	7:43
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	5	13:30	3:29
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	11:06	3:33
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:24	3:48
J. Luchanko	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	17:00	3:06
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:58	0:13
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:05	0:11
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	12:20	0:09
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	9:52	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	20:01	4:51
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	23:52	0:28
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	2	21:55	0:05
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:54	6:53
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	31	27	4	.871	60:56	OT loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	24:06	6:38
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	2	23:01	6:44
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	5	2	2	+2	0	14:52	0:02
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	12:40	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	11:49	1:13
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:02	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	20:47	6:41
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:11	6:10
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:41	1:26
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	7:17	1:18
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:14	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	24:13	6:12
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	23:28	2:10
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	16:46	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	25:56	1:08
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	5	14:43	0:18
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	30	27	3	.900	60:32	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, EDM 3.4	PHI 3, EDM 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	PHI 27.9, EDM 28.2	PHI 30, EDM 31
Win chance	EDM 62%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.1	5	0.59	1	25%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	1	1.86	2	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	1	1.01	0	42%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.9	5	0.82	1	30%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.6	2	0.82	0	26%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	3	1.09	1	18%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.4	5	1.43	2	43%	1
EDM J. Skinner	2.3	3	0.73	1	29%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	0	0.43	0	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.59	0	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	2	0.99	0	26%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	0	0.36	0	12%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.7	2	0.50	2	16%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.6	1	0.37	1	9%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.6	0	0.42	1	17%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.5	1	0.37	0	13%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	3	0.41	0	9%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.38	0	10%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	2	0.27	0	13%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.2	1	0.34	1	13%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	5	0.53	1	23%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.2	1	0.32	1	11%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.0	1	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.31	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.29	1	12%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
PHI E. Johnson	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	1	0.30	1	6%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	1	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.