Game Recap: PHI 2, MTL 3, April 5, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

FinalSat, Apr 5, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat PHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 2.13. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Couturier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Montembeault stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	0	1	2
MTL	0	0	3	3

1st 4:10PHIR. Poehling0.04 xG
3rd 1:24MTLB. Gallagher0.12 xG
3rd 2:40MTLL. Hutson0.01 xG
3rd 10:39MTLN. SuzukiSH0.13 xG
3rd 19:20PHIT. FoersterPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

PHIMTL

24Shots on goal26

2.13Expected goals3.00

52Shot attempts56

165v5 shots on goal22

1/4Power play0/2

24Hits40

10Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways29

0Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.13 xGMTL 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI24 on goal, 2 scored

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Poehling	C	1	1	2	2	0	2	0	0	16:35	3:08
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	24:35	5:15
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:48	4:55
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	11:14	0:11
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	24:38	4:45
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	23:04	3:38
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	17:52	4:14
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:39	1:58
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	13:24	2:46
K. Dorwart	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:32	2:25
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6:47	0:09
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	15:04	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:50	0:24
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:33	2:43
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:43	0:11
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:38	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	26	23	3	.885	56:38	Loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	22:09	2:59
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	2	6	0	+1	0	20:01	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:42	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	+1	0	14:10	1:03
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	17:04	3:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:58	3:01
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:46	0:00
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:55	3:06
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:45	1:02
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:51	0:42
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:18	0:51
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	5:36	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	22:07	3:09
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	21:49	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	+2	2	26:23	0:51
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	4	20:02	0:16
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChristian Dvorak PHI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.9, MTL 3.4	PHI 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	PHI 26.9, MTL 25.8	PHI 24, MTL 26
Win chance	MTL 57%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	4	0.91	0	36%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.7	3	0.83	0	27%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	3	0.86	1	29%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	5	0.58	0	18%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.2	2	0.50	0	23%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.1	1	0.76	0	29%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	1.11	2	31%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	1	0.54	1	26%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.77	0	24%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	2	0.60	0	13%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	3	0.51	1	20%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.7	0	0.49	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	1	0.42	0	10%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	0	0.48	0	20%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	0	0.53	0	18%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.4	2	0.25	0	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.4	2	0.43	2	17%	1
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	3	0.49	1	17%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	1	0.38	1	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.97	1	9%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.1	2	0.32	1	12%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	0	0.26	1	7%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	1	0.31	0	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	2	0.42	1	13%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	1	0.26	0	6%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.28	0	5%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.5	1	0.16	0	7%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.5	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.