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Game Recap
PHI2
Final/OTThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night
NJD3

NJD beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 1.61. NJD outshot PHI 44 to 25. T. Sanheim led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Allen stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
PHI10102
NJD01113
  1. 1st 11:12PHIR. Ristolainen0.08 xG
  2. 2nd 17:58NJDD. Hamilton0.03 xG
  3. 3rd 5:33PHIT. Sanheim0.05 xG
  4. 3rd 9:44NJDL. Hughes0.14 xG
  5. OT 3:23NJDJ. Hughes0.31 xG

Team Stats

PHINJD
25Shots on goal44
1.61Expected goals4.17
40Shot attempts95
205v5 shots on goal33
0/1Power play0/4
24Hits18
32Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes2
23Giveaways17
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 1.61 xGNJD 4.17 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTPHI goal, 11:12NJD goal, 17:58PHI goal, 5:33NJD goal, 9:44NJD goal, 3:23

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI24 on goal, 2 scored
NJD44 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CouturierC011210+1217:020:00
T. KonecnyRW011142-1016:590:45
C. DvorakC0001120220:450:49
T. FoersterRW000211-1018:501:00
T. ZegrasC0001000217:121:11
N. AcciariC0000120216:360:00
O. TippettRW0002410016:050:57
N. CatesLW000201-1015:120:00
M. MichkovRW000102-1013:241:11
P. MartoneRW000100+1012:271:11
C. GrundstromRW000121+108:300:00
A. BumpLW000030008:180:49
T. SanheimD1123030025:470:04
R. RistolainenD101423+1022:440:00
C. YorkD000123-1024:011:00
J. DrysdaleD000106-1020:391:03
N. SeelerD0001150014:430:00
S. BenoitD0001200013:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll44413.93262:49OT loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC101500+2025:485:28
J. BrattLW011600+2021:165:23
L. EvangelistaRW0114110218:105:28
N. HischierC000221+1018:565:22
A. GritsyukRW000212-1018:432:21
A. ManthaRW000100+1017:242:17
E. RodriguesC000120-2017:132:24
T. MeierRW0004200016:412:42
D. MercerC000310-1016:080:00
C. GlassC000310008:260:16
A. LombardiC000000008:030:00
S. NoesenRW000040006:000:09
L. HughesD101500+1024:175:17
D. HamiltonD101631-1021:322:43
J. SiegenthalerD000002-1020:400:10
B. PesceD000000+2019:320:00
B. DillonD0000110014:480:00
D. ChisholmD0002020014:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen25232.92063:23Win
N. Daws000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak17:12T. Konecny14:18P. Martone10:54
Line 2S. Couturier13:22N. Acciari13:23C. Grundstrom8:18
Line 3T. Foerster14:14N. Cates10:46M. Michkov10:56
Line 4T. Zegras13:43A. Bump7:29O. Tippett13:55
Pair 1R. Ristolainen18:59T. Sanheim19:01
Pair 2C. York17:51J. Drysdale18:30
Pair 3N. Seeler11:07S. Benoit13:12

NJD

Line 1A. Gritsyuk15:13D. Mercer14:48E. Rodrigues13:36
Line 2A. Mantha15:07J. Hughes17:46J. Bratt13:42
Line 3N. Hischier11:12L. Evangelista12:30T. Meier13:12
Line 4C. Glass7:30A. Lombardi8:03S. Noesen5:51
Pair 1D. Hamilton16:45J. Siegenthaler18:51
Pair 2B. Pesce17:53L. Hughes16:36
Pair 3B. Dillon14:03D. Chisholm14:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-110-1105Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+130-1486Over
NJD J. Bratt2.5+140-1656Over
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+140-1654Over
NJD N. Hischier2.5+114-1302Under
PHI O. Tippett2.5+110-1302Under
PHI P. Martone2.5+150-1851Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-130+1204Over
PHI A. Bump1.5+110-1350Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-135+1052Over
NJD A. Mantha1.5+105-1151Under
NJD B. Pesce1.5+115-1350Under
NJD D. Mercer1.5-115-1253Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-120+1001Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+140-1701Under
NJD L. Hughes1.5-180+1465Over
PHI M. Michkov1.5-150+1221Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-130+1082Over
PHI T. Konecny1.5-125+1041Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5-120-1051Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.6, NJD 3.4PHI 2, NJD 3
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalPHI 23.4, NJD 29.4PHI 25, NJD 44
Win chanceNJD 63%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.851.26138%1
NJD T. Meier3.140.63030%0
NJD N. Hischier2.420.85031%0
PHI O. Tippett2.420.52023%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.460.59115%1
PHI P. Martone2.210.55018%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.220.48018%0
NJD J. Bratt2.160.90125%0
NJD L. Hughes2.150.60110%1
NJD L. Evangelista2.040.60117%0
NJD D. Mercer1.930.51023%0
PHI T. Foerster1.820.46024%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.810.42015%0
PHI T. Konecny1.810.65123%0
PHI S. Couturier1.720.44114%0
PHI T. Zegras1.710.62021%0
PHI M. Michkov1.710.48017%0
NJD A. Mantha1.710.64025%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.510.45015%0
PHI N. Cates1.420.46016%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.440.3015%1
NJD C. Glass1.430.36016%0
PHI C. Grundstrom1.410.23013%0
PHI A. Bump1.400.39017%0
NJD S. Noesen1.300.32015%0
PHI N. Acciari1.300.26012%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.330.38210%1
NJD B. Pesce1.200.2505%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.210.3208%0
PHI C. York1.210.2806%0
PHI N. Seeler0.910.1504%0
PHI S. Benoit0.810.1102%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.800.2103%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.720.1804%0
NJD B. Dillon0.700.2105%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.