Game Recap: PHI 3, NSH 2 (OT), November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

NSH2

PHI beat NSH 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.95 expected goals to 3.09. S. Couturier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). G. Nyquist had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Kolosov stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	1	0	1	1	3
NSH	2	0	0	0	2

1st 6:17NSHR. Josi0.06 xG
1st 12:46PHIS. Laughton0.02 xG
1st 16:18NSHR. O'Reilly0.06 xG
3rd 19:48PHIM. Frost0.13 xG
OT 2:31PHIS. Couturier0.13 xG

Team Stats

PHINSH

23Shots on goal27

1.95Expected goals3.09

45Shot attempts84

205v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/1

25Hits23

32Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

37Giveaways28

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 1.95 xGNSH 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI23 on goal, 3 scored

NSH27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Couturier	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	19:15	2:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	21:05	2:00
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:50	1:32
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	12:31	0:00
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	9:43	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:20	1:53
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	17:48	2:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	16:31	0:21
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:18	0:00
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:35	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:52	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	11:41	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	26:23	1:36
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	1	3	8	+1	0	21:27	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:46	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	21:03	0:31
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:54	0:00
H. Grans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Kolosov	27	25	2	.926	60:04	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:50	1:13
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	16:42	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	18:24	0:55
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:15	1:13
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	17:56	2:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:37	0:47
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:08	0:47
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:32	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:04	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	10:45	0:04
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	4	4	3	-2	0	26:33	1:13
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	-2	0	23:20	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	20:18	0:47
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:15	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:27	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	23	20	3	.870	62:31	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, NSH 3.2	PHI 3, NSH 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	PHI 29.7, NSH 29.3	PHI 23, NSH 27
Win chance	NSH 58%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	2	1.12	0	41%	0
PHI T. Konecny	3.1	3	0.94	1	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.0	4	1.09	1	23%	1
PHI O. Tippett	3.0	3	0.54	0	23%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	5	0.85	0	35%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	2	0.96	0	36%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.6	2	0.53	2	18%	1
PHI J. Farabee	2.1	4	0.48	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	2	0.58	1	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	2.0	1	0.51	1	13%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	1	0.67	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	3	0.78	1	26%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	1.7	1	0.42	0	16%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.7	3	0.45	1	14%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	1	0.35	0	18%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	1	0.37	1	13%	1
NSH T. Novak	1.5	1	0.60	0	22%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	4	0.80	1	24%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	0	0.36	0	10%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	1	0.26	1	5%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	0	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	1	0.26	0	11%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	2	0.29	0	7%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	0	0.32	1	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.33	1	6%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	0	0.30	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.