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Game Recap
PHI5
NYI3
PHI beat NYI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 2.46. T. Konecny led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Dobson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Ersson stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 9:21NYIB. HorvatPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:15PHIS. Couturier0.22 xG
- 2nd 9:29PHIG. HathawaySH0.15 xG
- 2nd 13:41PHIM. Frost0.06 xG
- 3rd 0:30NYIM. Barzal0.13 xG
- 3rd 5:16PHIC. York0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:16NYIA. LeePP0.18 xG
- 3rd 18:48PHIN. CatesEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
PHINYI
24Shots on goal29
4.28Expected goals2.46
54Shot attempts71
155v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play2/4
28Hits15
23Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways18
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 4.28 xGNYI 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 13:02 | 0:14 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:14 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:45 | 3:58 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:38 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 4:57 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 4:31 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:22 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:54 | 1:09 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:42 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 3:41 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:02 | 0:08 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:57 | 3:11 |
| C. York | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 22:56 | 0:07 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 17:31 | 2:39 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 4:51 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:05 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:33 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:23 | 4:38 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:41 | 4:17 |
| M. Barzal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:38 | 4:40 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:55 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 4:14 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:13 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 2:32 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:23 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:02 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 25:08 | 4:17 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:19 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 14:56 | 2:34 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 57:22 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, NYI 3.0 | PHI 5, NYI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 28.6, NYI 27.1 | PHI 24, NYI 29 |
| Win chance | NYI 56% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 7 | 0.82 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.6 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 1 | 0.86 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 7 | 0.78 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.8 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.