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Game Recap
PHI1
NYR6
NYR beat PHI 6-1, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.83. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. York had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 33 of 34.
Team Stats
PHINYR
34Shots on goal37
3.83Expected goals3.49
69Shot attempts62
335v5 shots on goal32
0/3Power play1/2
12Hits12
16Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways14
0Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.83 xGNYR 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:30 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 3:06 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:48 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:34 | 2:42 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:59 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:44 | 1:35 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14:52 | 3:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:26 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:34 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 23:30 | 2:53 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 2:07 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:26 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:34 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 58:35 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:29 |
| F. Chytil | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:40 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:29 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 18:37 | 1:07 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 1:01 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:07 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:04 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:26 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:34 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:09 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 21:15 | 0:05 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:03 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:11 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 59:55 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, NYR 3.2 | PHI 1, NYR 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 29.2, NYR 27.3 | PHI 34, NYR 37 |
| Win chance | NYR 59% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.0 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.7 | 1 | 1.19 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 5 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 4 | 0.54 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI M. Frost | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 4 | 0.91 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.