Game Recap: PHI 1, OTT 2, October 8, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PHI1

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night

OTT2

OTT beat PHI 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.20 expected goals to 3.51. L. Ullmark stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	0	1
OTT	1	0	1	2

1st 10:14OTTN. Cousins0.15 xG
2nd 7:46PHIM. MichkovPP0.78 xG
3rd 13:01OTTC. YakemchukPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

PHIOTT

29Shots on goal26

3.51Expected goals2.20

64Shot attempts50

195v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/5

22Hits23

11Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes8

9Giveaways14

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.51 xGOTT 2.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI29 on goal, 1 scored

OTT26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:25	4:03
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	17:04	3:57
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	15:20	3:56
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:21	2:39
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	17:11	0:10
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:33	3:34
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:02	0:15
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:29	0:00
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:24	2:08
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:50	0:10
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:50	1:51
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:56	2:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	23:15	2:17
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	4	22:42	0:18
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:25	3:55
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:17	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:53	0:02
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	24	2	.923	58:15	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	22:50	4:30
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	19:43	4:54
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	11:56	0:06
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:13	0:04
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:14	5:26
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	18:50	4:30
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	17:47	5:20
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:28	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:07	4:59
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	13:13	4:27
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:43	4:48
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:24	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	2	18:29	0:18
C. Yakemchuk	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:45	3:41
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	0	29:19	6:12
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	20:44	0:05
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:12	0:00
H. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett13:23T. Zegras13:37C. Dvorak12:57

Line 2S. Couturier10:53T. Konecny12:34P. Martone9:51

Line 3M. Michkov10:10D. Barkey9:28T. Foerster8:16

Line 4M. Bunting8:56N. Cates8:32N. Acciari7:26

Pair 1J. Drysdale17:45T. Sanheim18:38

Pair 2D.Jiricek13:20C. York12:38

Pair 3N. Seeler11:49S. Benoit10:27

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio13:58S. Pinto13:32C. Giroux13:34

Line 2T. Stützle11:30D. Batherson10:59N. Cousins11:04

Line 3D. Cozens12:21R. Greig10:32F. Zetterlund8:46

Line 4W. Foegele11:39S. Halliday6:55

Pair 1T. Chabot19:40J. Spence19:12

Pair 2C. Yakemchuk11:04T. Kleven12:48

Pair 3N. Matinpalo11:21H. Stanley10:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 24 overs hit (46%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	+102	-125	1	Under
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	+125	-150	4	Over
OTT S. Pinto	2.5	+140	-150	2	Under
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+135	-160	0	Under
OTT W. Eklund	2.5	+135	-170	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	+120	-150	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	-110	-135	1	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.5	+105	-120	2	Over
PHI C. York	1.5	+125	-190	2	Over
OTT D. Batherson	1.5	-190	+140	3	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	-105	-115	3	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	+135	-155	3	Over
OTT J. Spence	1.5	+105	-120	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-125	+100	1	Under
PHI N. Acciari	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	1.5	+125	-190	1	Under
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-120	+105	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	-115	-125	4	Over
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-152	+125	4	Over
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-150	+125	3	Over
OTT T. Kleven	1.5	+110	-160	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	1.5	-180	+150	2	Over
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-120	+105	3	Over
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	-111	-130	1	Under

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+525	-600	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+650	-1600	1	Over
PHI C. York	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+1100	-1600	1	Over
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+430	-650	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+650	-750	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1450	-2500	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+265	-320	0	Under
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under

6 of 33 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+240	-275	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+170	-175	0	Under
PHI C. York	0.5	+200	-295	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+250	-400	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+175	-190	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+325	-650	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+250	-400	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+265	-300	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+270	-450	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+260	-250	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+350	-750	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+230	-350	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+350	-750	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+285	-325	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+390	-1100	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+210	-325	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+250	-400	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+270	-300	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+144	-165	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+320	-325	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+230	-350	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+175	-190	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+100	-105	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+145	-185	1	Over
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+270	-450	1	Over

9 of 33 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+145	-150	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+115	-130	1	Over
PHI C. York	0.5	+155	-220	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+175	-250	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-135	+125	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-130	+110	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+155	-220	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+210	-325	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+175	-235	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+188	-275	1	Over
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+310	-600	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+145	-150	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+115	-130	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	-102	-120	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+175	-250	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+188	-275	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-190	+175	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	-130	+110	0	Under
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+175	-235	1	Over

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+380	-900	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+300	-300	1	Over
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+280	-280	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+325	-600	1	Over
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+400	-900	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+450	-1000	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+380	-750	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+360	-700	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+270	-450	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+270	-375	1	Over
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+250	-280	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI J. Woll	25.5	-110	-125	24	Under
OTT L. Ullmark	22.5	-115	-110	28	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, OTT 3.3	PHI 1, OTT 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	PHI 22.8, OTT 29.9	PHI 29, OTT 26
Win chance	OTT 61%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT D. Cozens	2.6	1	0.65	0	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	0	1.03	0	31%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	4	0.56	0	25%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	4	0.63	0	14%	0
OTT W. Eklund	2.2	0	0.66	0	19%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	3	0.81	0	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.62	1	25%	0
PHI P. Martone	2.1	0	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	3	0.56	0	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	1	0.62	1	21%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.64	1	20%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.8	2	0.76	1	26%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.7	0	0.44	0	8%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	3	0.72	1	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	4	0.48	0	15%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.6	3	0.37	0	16%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.42	0	16%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	0	0.48	0	16%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.4	2	0.41	1	6%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	0	0.26	1	5%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	3	0.40	0	10%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.3	1	0.40	0	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.41	0	11%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.3	1	0.27	1	14%	0
PHI M. Bunting	1.3	2	0.33	0	14%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	1	0.42	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	3	0.44	0	19%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	2	0.30	0	7%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	0	0.42	0	15%	0
PHI D.Jiricek	1.0	2	0.19	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	0	0.12	0	3%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	2	0.22	1	8%	1
PHI S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.