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Game Recap
PHI3
PIT7
PIT beat PHI 7-3, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 2.16. S. Crosby led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Bunting had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. T. Jarry stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| PIT | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 1:29PITB. Rust0.03 xG
- 1st 6:12PHIE. Zamula0.11 xG
- 1st 11:53PITR. Rakell0.17 xG
- 1st 16:15PITM. BuntingPP0.21 xG
- 1st 17:44PITP. TomasinoPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:29PHIN. Cates0.14 xG
- 2nd 13:06PHIS. Couturier0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:48PITM. Bunting0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:30PITS. CrosbyEN0.96 xG
- 3rd 19:48PITB. LizottePP0.15 xG
Team Stats
PHIPIT
27Shots on goal22
2.16Expected goals2.88
49Shot attempts43
255v5 shots on goal14
0/0Power play3/3
26Hits21
8Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes0
8Giveaways16
7Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.16 xGPIT 2.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 14 | 9 | 5 | .643 | 40:00 | Loss |
| A. Kolosov | 7 | 6 | 1 | .857 | 18:22 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:23 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 1:47 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:23 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:36 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:06 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:06 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:47 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:06 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:36 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:06 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:59 | 1:36 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:47 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:47 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.1, PIT 3.3 | PHI 3, PIT 7 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 30.2, PIT 28.4 | PHI 27, PIT 22 |
| Win chance | PIT 54% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.7 | 0 | 1.02 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 4 | 0.92 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 2 | 1.13 | 4 | 34% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.85 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.88 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 5 | 0.66 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.7 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.