Game Recap: PHI 3, PIT 6, January 15, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalThu, Jan 15, 2026Every game that night

PIT6

PIT beat PHI 6-3, with the chances close: 4.18 expected goals to 3.92. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Skinner stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	2	3
PIT	2	2	2	6

1st 2:16PITJ. BrazeauPP0.10 xG
1st 12:25PITB. RustPP0.08 xG
2nd 1:16PITE. Chinakhov0.20 xG
2nd 2:17PHIR. Abols0.08 xG
2nd 18:29PITB. Lizotte0.27 xG
3rd 3:10PITS. CrosbyPP0.20 xG
3rd 4:27PITC. Dewar0.12 xG
3rd 10:54PHIN. Seeler0.03 xG
3rd 17:25PHIM. Michkov0.15 xG

Team Stats

PHIPIT

34Shots on goal30

3.92Expected goals4.18

71Shot attempts55

265v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play3/4

22Hits20

11Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways14

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.92 xGPIT 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI33 on goal, 3 scored

PIT29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Barkey	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	16:15	3:16
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	17:09	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	7	14:45	3:44
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	12:06	0:04
R. Abols	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	10:37	0:06
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	17:34	4:07
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:16	4:08
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:05	4:34
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	16:37	4:11
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:41	3:27
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:33	3:45
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:28	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	23:02	3:32
N. Seeler	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	18:18	0:13
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13:38	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	22:39	4:14
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	21:04	0:39
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	14	11	3	.786	22:06
A. Kolosov	16	13	3	.813	37:43	Loss

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	18:45	4:25
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	15:34	4:28
T. Novak	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	2	12:26	0:00
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:59	4:24
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	17:35	4:22
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	15:45	1:24
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	14:27	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	13:42	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	7	13:17	0:01
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	12:49	1:21
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	0	12:44	1:15
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:19	1:17
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	23:26	4:16
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:39	1:29
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:43	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	18:33	0:03
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	7	0	+1	0	16:45	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	2	16:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier13:29D. Barkey12:48M. Michkov11:01

Line 2T. Konecny11:58N. Grebenkin12:14C. Dvorak9:56

Line 3O. Tippett12:07T. Zegras12:57N. Cates10:21

Line 4G. Hathaway10:21C. Grundstrom11:14R. Abols10:04

Pair 1T. Sanheim17:44C. York16:17

Pair 2N. Seeler15:49J. Drysdale17:43

Pair 3N. Juulsen12:07E. Andrae12:10

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:20B. Rust14:08R. Rakell12:57

Line 2A. Mantha11:28J. Brazeau11:29B. Kindel11:16

Line 3E. Malkin11:05T. Novak12:15E. Chinakhov10:02

Line 4C. Dewar9:25N. Acciari9:10B. Lizotte10:16

Pair 1K. Letang18:12B. Kulak17:11

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon14:41J. Ivany14:10

Pair 3R. Shea14:16C. Clifton13:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI First game back in Pittsburgh, his team until Apr 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, PIT 3.4	PHI 3, PIT 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	PHI 24.7, PIT 27.3	PHI 34, PIT 30
Win chance	PIT 62%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	4	0.90	1	32%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	2	0.95	1	34%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	5	0.60	0	25%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	3	1.22	2	38%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	2	0.76	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	0	0.77	0	26%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	1	0.91	2	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	4	0.59	1	21%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	3	0.63	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	2	0.55	1	12%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	1	0.44	1	17%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	0	0.28	1	16%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	3	0.44	1	13%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	2	0.39	1	17%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	3	0.56	1	22%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.50	2	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	2	0.34	1	14%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.3	3	0.41	0	15%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.27	0	6%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	2	0.43	1	19%	1
PHI C. York	1.2	2	0.35	1	8%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	1	0.33	0	8%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.2	3	0.33	2	14%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.25	1	9%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	3	0.18	1	3%	1
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.24	1	12%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.36	1	16%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.0	4	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.27	0	4%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	0	0.30	0	11%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.24	0	5%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.11	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.