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Game Recap
PHI4
SEA6
SEA beat PHI 6-4, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.19. S. Laughton led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Oleksiak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. P. Grubauer stopped 21 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 4:21PHIS. Laughton0.02 xG
- 1st 18:15SEAB. Montour0.02 xG
- 1st 18:58PHIS. Laughton0.03 xG
- 2nd 3:06SEAJ. McCannPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 14:57SEAE. Tolvanen0.40 xG
- 2nd 17:44SEAJ. Eberle0.23 xG
- 2nd 17:52SEAS. Wright0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:19PHIC. York0.15 xG
- 3rd 12:32PHIJ. DrysdalePP0.04 xG
- 3rd 14:52SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.22 xG
Team Stats
PHISEA
25Shots on goal29
2.19Expected goals2.65
60Shot attempts64
165v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play1/5
27Hits21
21Blocked shots19
19Penalty minutes15
10Giveaways12
9Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.19 xGSEA 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Laughton | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:27 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:54 | 4:54 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 1:15 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 20:18 | 3:57 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 4:54 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:12 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 15:23 | 4:13 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:55 | 2:19 |
| J. Luchanko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:14 | 1:05 |
| C. York | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25:17 | 0:20 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:41 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:53 | 0:06 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 2:17 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 24 | 19 | 5 | .792 | 40:00 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 15:18 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 5:32 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 5:06 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 5:42 |
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:32 | 3:06 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:22 | 5:16 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:58 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:24 | 3:05 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:15 | 0:06 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:25 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:09 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:07 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:42 | 3:28 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 3:05 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:10 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:45 | Win |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.9, SEA 3.1 | PHI 4, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 30.2, SEA 27.0 | PHI 25, SEA 29 |
| Win chance | SEA 53% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.1 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.2 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.8 | 4 | 0.66 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.7 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 3 | 13% | 2 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.78 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.