PHI beat SJS 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 1.75. PHI outshot SJS 34 to 22. E. Zamula led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Poehling had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Ersson stopped 15 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 5:59PHIN. Seeler0.03 xG
- 2nd 12:09PHIR. Poehling0.35 xG
- 2nd 13:44PHIT. KonecnyPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 2:30PHIE. Zamula0.07 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.15 xGSJS 1.75 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:53 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:31 | 2:56 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:50 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:53 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 3:13 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:55 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:51 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:02 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:54 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:20 |
| E. Zamula | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:23 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:36 |
| N. Seeler | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:36 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:26 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:57 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1.000 | 40:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:51 | 1:30 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:31 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:30 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:31 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:29 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:29 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:30 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 1:32 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:30 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:28 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 60:00 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.5, SJS 3.1 | PHI 4, SJS 0 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 31.8, SJS 26.2 | PHI 34, SJS 22 |
| Win chance | PHI 56% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.9 | 6 | 1.02 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.8 | 6 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.7 | 3 | 1.07 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 6 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.7 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.