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Game Recap
PHI3
STL2
PHI beat STL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 2.73. M. Michkov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Ristolainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Kolosov stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:15PHIO. Tippett0.13 xG
- 3rd 11:11STLD. Holloway0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:02PHIT. Foerster0.57 xG
- 3rd 19:40STLJ. NeighboursPP0.35 xG
- OT 0:28PHIM. Michkov0.33 xG
Team Stats
PHISTL
31Shots on goal27
4.05Expected goals2.73
56Shot attempts61
285v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/3
12Hits27
18Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways21
6Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 4.05 xGSTL 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 2:08 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:00 | 1:29 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:25 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:42 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:48 | 2:18 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 2:31 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:30 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:30 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:27 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 24:07 | 2:26 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:34 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:28 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 4:53 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 4:34 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 4:45 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 2:02 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 4:54 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:54 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:03 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:02 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:53 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:54 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:35 | 4:36 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:08 | 1:17 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:12 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:39 | OT loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, STL 3.3 | PHI 3, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 29.4, STL 27.5 | PHI 31, STL 27 |
| Win chance | STL 60% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.9 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.