Game Recap: PHI 1, TBL 4, October 5, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalMon, Oct 5, 2026Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat PHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.40 expected goals to 1.59. TBL outshot PHI 36 to 15. P. Holmberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Hagel had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	0	1
TBL	1	1	2	4

1st 16:05TBLB. Point0.08 xG
2nd 0:17TBLP. Holmberg0.11 xG
2nd 7:22PHIT. Foerster0.07 xG
3rd 17:00TBLI. Mikheyev0.05 xG
3rd 19:53TBLB. HagelEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

PHITBL

15Shots on goal36

1.59Expected goals5.40

37Shot attempts70

115v5 shots on goal31

0/3Power play0/3

23Hits15

19Blocked shots12

11Penalty minutes11

14Giveaways10

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 1.59 xGTBL 5.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI15 on goal, 1 scored

TBL36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	-3	0	18:55	3:32
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	16:35	1:01
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:05	3:21
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	18:19	3:41
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:40	3:42
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	14:36	1:38
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:24	0:15
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	13:58	2:05
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	2:05
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:12	0:12
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:12	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	19:36	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-2	0	25:04	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	0	23:31	2:20
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:10	3:39
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:42	2:29
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	11:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	35	32	3	.914	57:24	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	21:59	5:54
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	16:43	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	13:05	0:09
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	8	0	1	+1	2	20:11	5:18
B. Point	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:09	5:20
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	0	4	2	+1	0	14:23	0:07
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	21:20	5:26
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	16:31	0:25
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:12	0:27
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:47	0:30
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	8:49	0:06
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:51	5:24
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+3	0	22:15	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+2	0	17:03	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:01	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	15:24	0:09
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	15:21	0:12
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	10:56	0:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	15	14	1	.933	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny13:39C. Dvorak13:12M. Michkov11:06

Line 2S. Couturier12:18N. Acciari11:25C. Grundstrom10:12

Line 3T. Zegras12:40D. Barkey10:39O. Tippett10:46

Line 4T. Foerster10:00P. Martone11:52N. Cates8:10

Pair 1T. Sanheim20:06C. York16:19

Pair 2N. Seeler17:20D.Jiricek14:31

Pair 3J. Drysdale12:48S. Benoit9:57

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel12:44B. Hagel12:06A. Cirelli13:44

Line 2B. Point12:49G. Goncalves15:12N. Kucherov15:43

Line 3Z. Girgensons9:54P. Holmberg11:18I. Mikheyev12:15

Line 4J. Viel8:43C. Geekie11:17

Pair 1J. Carlson12:27J. Moser12:38

Pair 2M. Crozier15:15C. D'Astous10:23

Pair 3R. McDonagh10:46E. Cernak17:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-145	+130	8	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+135	-160	3	Over
TBL J. Carlson	2.5	+134	-150	1	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-120	-102	5	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-165	+136	1	Under
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	+140	-165	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-115	+105	1	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	+120	-155	1	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	-105	-115	2	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	+145	-175	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-130	+114	1	Under
PHI N. Cates	1.5	+125	-165	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-120	+105	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-125	+110	4	Over
PHI T. Konecny	1.5	-120	+106	2	Over
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	+115	-135	0	Under

5 of 35 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+185	-250	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
PHI C. Grundstrom	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
PHI C. York	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+370	-450	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+525	-700	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+330	-470	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2900	–	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+330	-470	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+3000	–	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+340	-450	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under

2 of 16 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+126	-150	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+260	-310	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+100	-110	1	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+320	-325	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-200	+155	2	Over
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+260	-310	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+190	-240	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+225	-270	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL J. Guentzel	1.5	+220	-250	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+125	-132	2	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+120	-132	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-180	+165	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+160	-160	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-140	+125	1	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+190	-215	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+200	-280	2	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+150	-180	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+245	-300	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+180	-245	0	Under

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+200	-190	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+195	-275	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+375	-1100	Under
PHI C. York	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+140	-165	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+310	-650	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+145	-160	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+380	-650	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+475	-1100	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-125	+105	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+380	-900	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+390	-900	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+380	-800	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+380	-650	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+375	-550	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI D. Vladar	26.5	-110	-114	32	Over
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	20.5	-130	-105	14	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	-185	+130	5	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.4, TBL 3.5	PHI 1, TBL 4
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	PHI 22.8, TBL 29.0	PHI 15, TBL 36
Win chance	TBL 68%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	1	1.51	2	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.2	8	1.08	1	36%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	5	1.02	0	36%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	0	0.50	0	23%	0
TBL B. Point	2.1	3	0.82	1	33%	1
TBL J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.64	1	12%	0
PHI P. Martone	1.9	0	0.45	0	15%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	4	0.43	1	23%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	1	0.64	0	23%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	1	0.48	0	17%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	0	0.61	0	21%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.7	2	0.61	0	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	1	0.41	1	13%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	1	0.43	0	15%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	1	0.42	2	19%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.21	0	12%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	1	0.48	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.36	0	10%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.30	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	3	0.28	2	12%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.44	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	3	0.31	0	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.2	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	0	0.31	0	11%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.9	0	0.13	1	4%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	0	0.18	1	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.8	2	0.21	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.32	0	5%	0
PHI D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.