Game Recap: PHI 3, TOR 2 (SO), March 2, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/SOMon, Mar 2, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

PHI beat TOR 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.42. N. Cates led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Matthews had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. D. Vladar stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	0	1	1	3
TOR	1	0	1	0	2

1st 15:22TORD. Joshua0.06 xG
1st 18:38PHIC. DvorakPP0.27 xG
3rd 14:42PHIN. Cates0.10 xG
3rd 17:30TORW. NylanderPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

PHITOR

25Shots on goal31

2.56Expected goals2.42

53Shot attempts57

165v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/3

19Hits26

14Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways13

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.56 xGTOR 2.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored

TOR30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+1	0	19:56	1:50
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	23:34	1:45
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	20:47	3:05
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	9:17	1:44
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:51	3:01
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:43	3:08
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:30	2:56
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:49	0:05
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:42	0:01
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:44	0:03
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:31	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7:34	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	29:11	1:40
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	5	2	2	+1	2	27:14	0:22
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	24:30	2:56
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	23:01	1:30
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:12	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:01	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	31	29	2	.935	65:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	25:39	3:57
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:15	3:53
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	18:18	3:50
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	11:21	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:13	0:59
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	8	3	3	-1	0	26:06	3:53
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:42	0:55
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:36	0:59
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	2	13:36	0:03
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:51	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:23	0:59
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	24:24	0:14
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	24:00	1:06
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	23:54	3:32
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:51	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	17:29	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	25	23	2	.920	65:00	OT loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett16:27T. Zegras16:18C. Dvorak16:45

Line 2B. Brink17:00M. Michkov13:40N. Cates14:12

Line 3S. Couturier12:47N. Grebenkin8:41D. Barkey7:33

Line 4G. Hathaway8:22C. Grundstrom8:16N. Deslauriers7:34

Pair 1R. Ristolainen23:31T. Sanheim21:26

Pair 2J. Drysdale19:29C. York17:19

Pair 3N. Seeler5:57E. Andrae11:08

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander18:32A. Matthews17:43B. McMann16:47

Line 2J. Tavares13:15M. Knies13:06M. Domi11:32

Line 3N. Roy11:56D. Joshua11:21M. Maccelli10:14

Line 4S. Laughton7:55S. Lorentz8:06E. Cowan7:24

Pair 1J. McCabe19:17S. Benoit15:16

Pair 2M. Rielly17:31B. Carlo15:11

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson20:18P. Myers11:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoseph Woll PHI First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
HometownJamie Drysdale PHI Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.0, TOR 3.4	PHI 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	PHI 28.0, TOR 26.3	PHI 25, TOR 31
Win chance	TOR 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	8	1.13	0	43%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	2	0.57	0	24%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	0	0.59	0	21%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	1	0.86	1	33%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.2	4	1.03	1	35%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	1	0.73	0	24%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.1	3	0.65	1	20%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.1	1	0.54	0	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	0	0.49	0	14%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.75	1	25%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.7	2	0.52	1	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.57	0	11%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	5	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.47	2	16%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	0	0.58	1	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	3	0.59	0	16%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.4	2	0.22	0	12%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	3	0.49	0	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.37	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	3	0.41	0	10%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.40	0	10%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.2	0	0.37	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	2	0.37	0	15%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	1	0.35	1	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.37	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.13	0	4%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	0	0.43	0	16%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.33	1	16%	1
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	1	0.10	0	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.16	0	8%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	3	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.