UTA beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 1.71. UTA outshot PHI 42 to 20. D. Guenther led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. O'Brien had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 2:02PHIR. Abols0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:32UTAM. Sergachev0.02 xG
- 2nd 4:29PHIT. Foerster0.21 xG
- 3rd 8:40UTAD. Guenther0.07 xG
- OT 4:59UTAD. Guenther0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.71 xGUTA 4.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:26 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:34 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:23 | 2:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 2:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:00 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Gaucher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:14 | 2:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 42 | 39 | 3 | .929 | 64:59 | OT loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:37 | 4:43 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:17 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:53 | 4:37 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 3:48 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:23 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 1:42 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 1:17 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:47 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 25:53 | 4:07 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:14 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:11 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:11 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:41 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 64:59 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, UTA 3.0 | PHI 2, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 27.0, UTA 26.7 | PHI 20, UTA 42 |
| Win chance | UTA 58% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 5 | 1.14 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 6 | 0.80 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 5 | 0.89 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 4 | 0.52 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.3 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.8 | 5 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.