Game Recap: PHI 4, UTA 5 (OT), January 21, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/OTWed, Jan 21, 2026Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat PHI 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.71 expected goals to 4.35. C. Dvorak led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Michkov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	2	2	0	0	4
UTA	0	2	2	1	5

1st 0:30PHIC. York0.18 xG
1st 4:36PHIC. Dvorak0.37 xG
2nd 0:58PHIB. BrinkPP0.33 xG
2nd 5:35UTAJ. Peterka0.22 xG
2nd 6:11UTAL. Crouse0.13 xG
2nd 10:28PHIC. DvorakPP0.18 xG
3rd 12:47UTAD. GuentherPP0.02 xG
3rd 19:25UTAC. Keller0.22 xG
OT 2:01UTAC. Keller0.26 xG

Team Stats

PHIUTA

29Shots on goal27

4.35Expected goals2.71

59Shot attempts68

205v5 shots on goal18

2/6Power play1/3

25Hits26

18Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes15

19Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 4.35 xGUTA 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI28 on goal, 4 scored

UTA26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	2	1	3	6	0	0	+1	0	22:15	6:09
T. Zegras	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	20:43	6:19
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:06	6:28
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	18:51	6:12
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:50	0:10
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:29	2:07
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:46	2:08
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:49	1:54
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	12:19	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	7	1	0	-1	0	12:11	2:05
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:54	0:00
L. Pederson	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	9:29	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	-2	0	22:36	6:15
C. York	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	26:48	2:15
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	23:37	0:22
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	7	12:55	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	4	17:09	0:06
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	27	22	5	.815	62:01	OT loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	2	1	3	5	0	1	+2	0	19:19	2:37
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	2	19:35	2:37
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	0	19:13	2:37
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	20:40	1:00
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	14:08	1:00
D. But	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	11:26	0:43
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:51	2:37
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:05	0:17
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	5	15:00	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:25	1:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	7:33	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	6:06	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	26:34	2:37
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	20:13	1:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:12	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:48	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	16:51	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	29	25	4	.862	60:35	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1N. Cates11:58B. Brink11:53M. Michkov10:06

Line 2S. Couturier13:46D. Barkey10:55O. Tippett10:47

Line 3T. Zegras11:57T. Konecny10:41C. Dvorak11:06

Line 4G. Hathaway11:06N. Grebenkin11:07L. Pederson9:24

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:44C. York18:18

Pair 2N. Seeler16:38N. Juulsen12:05

Pair 3J. Drysdale14:50E. Andrae10:09

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:02C. Keller13:35L. Crouse11:41

Line 2D. Guenther13:25M. Carcone13:05J. McBain10:39

Line 3B. Hayton13:22J. Peterka12:55D. But10:37

Line 4K. Stenlund9:21B. Tanev7:33L. O'Brien6:06

Pair 1N. Schmidt16:49J. Marino17:43

Pair 2S. Durzi16:53M. Sergachev14:54

Pair 3I. Cole11:02N. DeSimone12:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, UTA 3.4	PHI 4, UTA 5
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	PHI 24.2, UTA 26.5	PHI 29, UTA 27
Win chance	UTA 61%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	4	0.91	2	33%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.4	5	1.05	3	31%	2
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	1	0.56	0	24%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	1	0.94	2	29%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.0	1	0.76	1	26%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	1	0.76	1	27%	1
PHI T. Zegras	1.9	2	0.69	2	24%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	2	0.58	1	26%	1
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	7	0.55	0	20%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.48	0	22%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.8	6	0.58	3	20%	2
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	0	0.68	1	13%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	0	0.48	0	11%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	3	0.44	0	13%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	1	0.43	0	16%	0
UTA D. But	1.4	0	0.31	1	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	1	0.39	0	15%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.32	1	7%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.32	1	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.17	0	4%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	1	0.40	0	15%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	1	0.40	0	13%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	2	0.29	2	6%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.1	3	0.36	1	13%	1
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.36	0	8%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.31	0	14%	0
PHI L. Pederson	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.8	3	0.20	0	6%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.41	0	6%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.31	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.18	0	10%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	3	0.17	0	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	2	0.25	0	3%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.11	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.