PHI beat VGK 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.10 expected goals to 2.90. VGK outshot PHI 25 to 17. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Laczynski had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. S. Ersson stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:46PHIT. Konecny0.22 xG
- 2nd 19:28VGKT. HertlPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:22PHIT. KonecnySH0.28 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.10 xGVGK 2.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:34 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:25 | 2:12 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:14 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:49 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:11 | 1:01 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 2:10 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:03 | 1:09 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:36 | 1:10 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Pederson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:02 | 0:10 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:58 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:57 | 2:23 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:55 | 11:19 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:12 | 10:17 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:58 | 10:33 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 10:42 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 10:37 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:03 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:54 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:04 | 0:58 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 2:59 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 1:34 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:17 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
VGK
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, VGK 3.5 | PHI 2, VGK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 23.3, VGK 26.8 | PHI 17, VGK 25 |
| Win chance | VGK 64% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 1 | 1.26 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 2 | 1.14 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.0 | 5 | 0.77 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.8 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI L. Pederson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.6 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK J. Megna | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.