Game Recap: PHI 1, WSH 3, February 25, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night

WSH3

WSH beat PHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.66 expected goals to 2.66. A. Protas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Ristolainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Thompson stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	0	1	1
WSH	0	1	2	3

2nd 13:52WSHR. Sandin0.17 xG
3rd 0:29PHIN. Cates0.11 xG
3rd 14:08WSHT. van Riemsdyk0.28 xG
3rd 19:34WSHA. ProtasEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

PHIWSH

24Shots on goal29

2.66Expected goals3.66

48Shot attempts64

245v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/1

26Hits25

19Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways16

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.66 xGWSH 3.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI23 on goal, 1 scored

WSH29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:07	1:23
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:10	1:04
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	21:37	1:45
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:10	1:44
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:10	1:41
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	17:29	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	-3	0	17:28	1:28
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:52	1:05
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:22	0:55
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:43	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	7:43	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	21:59	0:07
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	22:25	0:08
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	22:20	1:46
C. York	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	19:50	1:22
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	15:29	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	28	26	2	.929	57:45	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	15:44	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	8:51	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	17:25	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	0	17:07	0:21
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:07	1:39
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:57	0:57
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:09	0:21
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:35	1:03
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:40	1:39
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	13:22	1:39
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	13:05	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:41	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	24:14	1:39
R. Sandin	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:01	0:21
T. van Riemsdyk	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	17:27	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:08	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	21:04	0:21
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	20:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny18:08T. Zegras15:56C. Dvorak15:35

Line 2S. Couturier16:08O. Tippett14:50D. Barkey13:27

Line 3M. Michkov13:55B. Brink14:22N. Cates13:21

Line 4N. Grebenkin9:13C. Grundstrom7:43G. Hathaway7:15

Pair 1T. Sanheim20:28R. Ristolainen20:51

Pair 2J. Drysdale19:16C. York17:50

Pair 3N. Seeler14:19N. Juulsen13:58

WSH

Line 1P. Dubois14:48R. Leonard14:23C. McMichael13:26

Line 2E. Frank16:11J. Sourdif13:52A. Beauvillier16:13

Line 3D. Strome13:01A. Protas14:14A. Ovechkin11:43

Line 4N. Dowd11:38B. Duhaime11:31H. Lapierre8:51

Pair 1J. Chychrun21:02R. Sandin17:16

Pair 2M. Fehérváry18:48M. Roy18:40

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk16:01D. Chisholm14:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayLogan Thompson WSH Turns 29 that day23 saves on 24, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, WSH 3.6	PHI 1, WSH 3
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	PHI 25.8, WSH 27.2	PHI 24, WSH 29
Win chance	WSH 61%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	1	0.76	1	24%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.7	3	0.95	0	37%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	2	0.56	0	23%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.86	0	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	2	0.54	0	20%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	4	0.46	0	20%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.69	0	23%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	2	0.63	0	20%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	1	0.79	2	26%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	3	0.61	0	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	1	0.94	0	28%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	2	0.63	0	22%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.7	0	0.64	0	23%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.41	0	12%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	1	0.49	1	18%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	2	0.44	1	16%	1
WSH E. Frank	1.5	4	0.52	0	20%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	1	0.64	0	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	4	0.26	0	5%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.4	2	0.24	0	13%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	3	0.36	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.39	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	0	0.35	1	9%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	1	0.31	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	2	0.34	1	6%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	1	0.35	0	11%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.33	0	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	0	0.28	0	10%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.7	0	0.15	1	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	2	0.21	1	3%	1
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	2	0.22	1	7%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.