Game Recap: PHI 4, WSH 6, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI4

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

WSH6

WSH beat PHI 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 3.60. P. Dubois led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). T. Sanheim had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. L. Thompson stopped 20 of 24.

Team Stats

PHIWSH

24Shots on goal18

3.60Expected goals2.13

65Shot attempts36

165v5 shots on goal11

0/3Power play2/3

34Hits25

11Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes12

18Giveaways9

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.60 xGWSH 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI23 on goal, 4 scored

WSH16 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	3	3	0	-1	2	22:30	3:45
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	20:37	2:34
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:19	3:25
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	4	17:46	4:09
D. Barkey	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:38	2:31
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	10:46	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	17:17	2:15
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	2	16:54	3:17
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:09	2:32
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	11:02	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	7:23	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	22:59	0:01
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+2	0	24:59	3:31
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:49	2:29
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:18	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:12	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	17	12	5	.706	57:54	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	0	4	4	0	2	0	+1	0	17:18	2:10
T. Wilson	RW	2	0	2	3	2	0	+1	0	20:57	2:05
C. McMichael	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	18:03	3:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	2	0	2	3	3	1	0	0	15:44	5:03
R. Leonard	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	11:29	2:07
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	19:16	2:56
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:17	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	16:17	3:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:44	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:29	0:02
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:21	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	2	3	2	1	3	+2	0	20:22	2:04
M. Roy	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	19:33	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	-2	0	21:14	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	21:53	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	21:11	0:04
C. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	4	10:58	3:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	24	20	4	.833	59:55	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak13:22T. Konecny14:39P. Martone12:51

Line 2O. Tippett12:35T. Zegras12:36C. Grundstrom10:29

Line 3N. Cates10:19M. Michkov10:49D. Barkey10:21

Line 4L. Glendening6:43G. Hathaway7:02S. Couturier7:45

Pair 1R. Ristolainen16:03T. Sanheim16:52

Pair 2C. York14:11J. Drysdale14:45

Pair 3N. Seeler11:39E. Andrae12:54

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson11:54P. Dubois12:09H. Lapierre11:59

Line 2D. Strome11:26C. McMichael10:35A. Ovechkin9:51

Line 3J. Sourdif15:14A. Beauvillier12:30R. Leonard9:15

Line 4B. Duhaime9:38D. Kampf8:27I. Miroshnichenko6:21

Pair 1M. Fehérváry16:27R. Sandin16:14

Pair 2T. Riemsdyk15:46J. Chychrun15:55

Pair 3M. Roy14:35C. Hutson7:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJakob Chychrun WSH Turns 28 that day1 G, 2 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, WSH 3.2	PHI 4, WSH 6
Total goals	5.9	10
Shots on goal	PHI 25.6, WSH 25.9	PHI 24, WSH 18
Win chance	WSH 58%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.0	1	0.61	0	26%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	3	0.88	2	37%	2
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	2	0.64	3	21%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	3	0.81	2	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	0	0.70	1	23%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	1	0.60	0	21%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	3	0.79	2	31%	2
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	1	0.41	0	18%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.9	3	0.55	2	18%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	2	0.50	2	18%	1
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	2	0.61	2	22%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	0	0.69	4	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	0	0.79	0	25%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	0	0.34	1	7%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.6	1	0.52	0	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	1	0.39	0	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	1	0.48	1	17%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.5	1	0.23	1	13%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	0	0.35	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	4	0.39	2	10%	1
PHI C. York	1.2	1	0.30	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.2	0	0.37	1	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	2	0.28	2	5%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	3	0.33	1	12%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.0	0	0.32	0	3%	0
WSH D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.31	0	7%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.23	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.27	0	8%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.