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Game Recap
PIT3
BUF7
BUF beat PIT 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 1.94. J.Kulich led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Hayes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Reimer stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| BUF | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
- 1st 0:27BUFT. Thompson0.16 xG
- 1st 4:44BUFP. Krebs0.10 xG
- 1st 11:11PITS. Crosby0.28 xG
- 2nd 3:36BUFJ.Kulich0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:20BUFM. Samuelsson0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:34BUFJ.Kulich0.07 xG
- 2nd 12:02BUFT. Kozak0.03 xG
- 2nd 19:34BUFA. Tuch0.11 xG
- 3rd 2:16PITB. Lizotte0.23 xG
- 3rd 13:54PITK. Hayes0.13 xG
Team Stats
PITBUF
25Shots on goal30
1.94Expected goals2.76
46Shot attempts49
205v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play0/4
28Hits15
8Blocked shots14
15Penalty minutes13
14Giveaways15
8Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.94 xGBUF 2.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:16 | 3:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:55 | 3:37 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:00 | 0:01 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:54 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 3:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 9 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 1:06 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:45 | 1:07 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | 0:29 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 23:12 | 2:51 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:07 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 23:13 | 1:07 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 1:09 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:06 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:30 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 12 | 8 | 4 | .667 | 25:20 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 34:22 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:51 |
| J.Kulich | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 19:07 | 2:06 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:31 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:31 | 2:37 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:19 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 3:18 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 24:01 | 2:46 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:33 | 3:36 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:24 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 16:49 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 25 | 23 | 3 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, BUF 3.5 | PIT 3, BUF 7 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.4, BUF 30.3 | PIT 25, BUF 30 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 3 | 1.06 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.5 | 2 | 1.15 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 5 | 0.91 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 1 | 0.88 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 4 | 0.43 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 6 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.