Game Recap: PIT 5, BUF 2, February 5, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT5

FinalThu, Feb 5, 2026Every game that night

BUF2

PIT beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.12 expected goals to 3.24. A. Hayes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Crosby had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Silovs stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	2	1	2	5
BUF	1	0	1	2

1st 1:46BUFJ. Zucker0.02 xG
1st 9:18PITA. Hayes0.16 xG
1st 18:47PITA. Hayes0.15 xG
2nd 7:44PITB. Kindel0.12 xG
3rd 1:55BUFT. ThompsonPP0.08 xG
3rd 15:33PITT. Novak0.43 xG
3rd 19:46PITB. KindelEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

PITBUF

32Shots on goal27

5.12Expected goals3.24

53Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play1/5

20Hits16

8Blocked shots10

15Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 5.12 xGBUF 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT31 on goal, 5 scored

BUF26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:27	4:24
A. Hayes	RW	2	0	2	6	2	0	+2	0	10:09	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	4	17:59	4:36
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	16:30	1:24
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	15:41	0:00
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:19	1:35
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:08	1:33
R. McGroarty	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:01	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23:31	4:27
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	2	20:05	4:23
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	11:11	1:38
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	7:07	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	5	2	+2	0	23:37	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	12:08	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+2	0	22:47	4:30
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:29	1:30
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:44	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	+3	5	17:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	27	25	2	.926	59:38	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	7	1	0	-3	0	23:18	6:14
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:01	1:05
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	19:24	6:11
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	18:48	6:15
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	2	20:53	2:54
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-4	0	18:35	6:14
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:23	1:18
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	11:10	0:14
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7	10:40	0:41
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:38	0:40
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:36	1:17
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:02	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	26:32	6:54
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	26:00	1:16
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	25:12	0:52
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	22:42	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	7:56	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	4:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	31	27	4	.871	56:51	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin13:15T. Novak13:40E. Chinakhov11:32

Line 2S. Crosby14:31B. Rust11:57A. Mantha13:43

Line 3J. Brazeau8:36B. Kindel9:44C. Dewar8:38

Line 4A. Hayes10:09R. McGroarty8:18K. Hayes6:38

Pair 1E. Karlsson16:48P. Wotherspoon16:43

Pair 2R. Shea15:31B. Kulak15:50

Pair 3C. Clifton11:02I. Solovyov11:15

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:52T. Thompson15:37J. Doan11:37

Line 2J. Zucker11:40J. Quinn12:12R. McLeod14:05

Line 3N. Ostlund9:25K. Helenius7:42I. Rosen8:18

Line 4B. Malenstyn7:43T. Kozak7:34P. Krebs9:59

Pair 1O. Power20:02B. Byram20:48

Pair 2M. Samuelsson17:33R. Dahlin17:09

Pair 3J. Bryson4:19M. Kesselring7:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.5, BUF 3.3	PIT 5, BUF 2
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	PIT 29.8, BUF 26.8	PIT 32, BUF 27
Win chance	PIT 52%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	7	1.07	1	42%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	1	0.93	1	20%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	0	0.77	0	30%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	3	0.87	0	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	6	1.00	0	33%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	5	0.83	1	25%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	1	0.72	1	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	2	0.68	0	13%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	4	0.68	1	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	0	0.67	0	24%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.0	3	0.47	1	21%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	2	0.41	2	17%	2
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	0	0.60	1	23%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.7	0	0.41	0	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.43	0	8%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.6	2	0.44	0	19%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	2	0.50	1	19%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.4	1	0.29	0	13%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	0	0.24	1	11%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.34	1	14%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	0	0.46	0	10%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	1	0.66	1	20%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.49	1	13%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.40	0	12%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.43	0	18%	0
PIT R. Shea	1.0	1	0.31	0	6%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.25	1	4%	0
BUF I. Rosen	0.9	2	0.26	0	10%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	0	0.23	1	3%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	2	0.15	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.17	0	10%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.