Game Recap: PIT 2, CBJ 6, November 15, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalFri, Nov 15, 2024Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat PIT 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.38 expected goals to 3.12. CBJ outshot PIT 39 to 23. D. Voronkov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Danforth had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. E. Merzlikins stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	1	0	2
CBJ	2	1	3	6

1st 2:20CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.08 xG
1st 8:39CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.06 xG
1st 11:51PITA. Beauvillier0.19 xG
2nd 12:06PITM. BuntingPP0.21 xG
2nd 16:27CBJM. Olivier0.13 xG
3rd 1:56CBJD. Voronkov0.32 xG
3rd 9:49CBJD. Severson0.25 xG
3rd 15:32CBJC. SillingerEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

PITCBJ

23Shots on goal39

3.12Expected goals4.38

71Shot attempts77

175v5 shots on goal30

1/4Power play1/5

18Hits26

20Blocked shots25

10Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.12 xGCBJ 4.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT23 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ39 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	13:30	1:43
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	20:45	6:19
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	15:59	1:11
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-3	0	13:00	2:37
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	20:26	5:41
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	19:29	5:57
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-4	2	18:33	5:56
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	14:34	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:50	1:46
V. Puustinen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:33	0:38
S. Poulin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:43	5:48
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	23:13	0:08
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	18:40	0:08
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:30	1:52
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	15:10	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-3	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	38	33	5	.868	58:38	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	19:09	4:25
D. Voronkov	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	14:21	3:42
J. Danforth	RW	0	1	1	5	1	3	+2	0	18:52	2:49
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	4	5	1	0	0	17:18	3:03
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:34	4:34
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	15:34	5:04
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	2	15:07	4:55
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+2	0	13:21	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	11:23	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	11:18	0:44
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:09	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	10:57	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	4	0	4	0	0	22:22	4:49
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+3	0	22:41	3:11
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+3	0	22:11	3:19
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	2	16:42	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	16:16	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	23	21	2	.913	59:45	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEgor Chinakhov PIT Faces CBJ, his team until Dec 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.5, CBJ 3.3	PIT 2, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.8	8
Shots on goal	PIT 33.6, CBJ 32.6	PIT 23, CBJ 39
Win chance	PIT 53%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	4	0.90	2	17%	1
PIT S. Crosby	3.3	3	1.23	1	38%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.8	1	0.79	0	30%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	1	0.75	0	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.7	0	1.03	0	32%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	3	0.68	1	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	2	0.75	0	15%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.4	0	0.59	1	22%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	1	0.60	1	22%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	2	0.71	2	25%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	4	0.49	1	18%	1
PIT D. O'Connor	2.0	2	0.44	1	20%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	3	0.61	1	22%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	5	0.46	2	21%	1
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.8	2	0.35	2	15%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.7	5	0.45	1	18%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.6	2	0.30	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	3	0.52	1	12%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.41	1	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	0	0.28	0	16%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.3	1	0.42	0	5%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.3	0	0.35	1	12%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	4	0.27	1	13%	1
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.32	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.2	1	0.25	1	4%	0
PIT V. Puustinen	1.2	1	0.33	0	10%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	2	0.32	1	13%	1
PIT M. Nieto	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
PIT R. Graves	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	2	0.19	1	4%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.7	1	0.22	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	1	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.