Game Recap: PIT 2, CBJ 3 (SO), October 9, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT2

Final/SOFri, Oct 9, 2026Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.01 expected goals to 3.11. CBJ outshot PIT 45 to 22. D. Severson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Coyle had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Talbot stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	0	1	1	0	2
CBJ	1	1	0	1	3

1st 10:52CBJD. Severson0.14 xG
2nd 11:40CBJM. Olivier0.15 xG
2nd 14:30PITB. Rust0.61 xG
3rd 3:19PITE. Malkin0.08 xG

Team Stats

PITCBJ

22Shots on goal45

3.11Expected goals5.01

49Shot attempts82

185v5 shots on goal33

0/2Power play0/4

9Hits21

19Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways13

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.11 xGCBJ 5.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT22 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ46 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	2	18:21	1:14
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:30	2:43
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:29	2:28
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:40	2:27
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:19	2:34
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	14:36	1:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:33	1:13
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:35	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:30	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:13	0:48
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:03	0:20
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	24:50	2:34
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	2	19:25	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	4	5	+1	0	20:19	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	19:14	1:09
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:08	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	45	43	2	.956	65:00	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	0	2	2	2	3	0	0	0	16:41	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	16:35	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	23:30	6:01
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	2	21:57	6:13
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	20:38	6:32
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:10	5:54
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:11	1:48
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:01	1:28
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	12:43	1:41
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:01	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:48	0:49
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
D. Severson	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	22:20	0:19
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	29:36	6:46
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-1	0	23:29	0:59
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	17:29	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:56	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	7:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	22	20	2	.909	65:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:23R. Rakell15:32B. Rust12:34

Line 2E. Malkin13:05E. Chinakhov12:53T. Novak11:49

Line 3B. Kindel11:27V. Koivunen12:25H. Lapierre11:43

Line 4C. Dewar9:15N. Robertson9:28B. Lizotte8:33

Pair 1S. Girard17:36K. Korczak16:31

Pair 2E. Karlsson18:38D. Carlile14:51

Pair 3K. Letang15:57T. Riemsdyk13:35

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier15:34C. Sillinger14:26C. Coyle14:45

Line 2M. Knies12:19A. Fantilli12:54K. Johnson10:44

Line 3S. Monahan11:50V. Nichushkin11:53D. Voronkov11:02

Line 4C. Garland8:57R. Lomberg9:13D. Heinen11:04

Pair 1Z. Werenski18:52D. Severson19:35

Pair 2C. Soucy15:29D. Mateychuk19:44

Pair 3E. Gudbranson15:14E. Andrae7:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 18 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	-102	-115	3	Under
PIT B. Rust	2.5	+135	-164	2	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+148	-160	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	+116	-140	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+130	-150	3	Over
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	-160	+130	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-120	-105	7	Over
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+115	-125	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.5	+130	-150	5	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	-170	+144	3	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-175	+138	3	Over
PIT H. Lapierre	1.5	+165	-225	1	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-115	+110	2	Over
PIT K. Letang	1.5	+110	-135	2	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+115	-150	4	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	-110	-120	3	Over
PIT T. Novak	1.5	+100	-120	1	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-148	+115	1	Under

3 of 31 overs hit (10%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+230	-350	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+850	-1000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2300	-4000	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+290	-300	1	Over
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+500	-700	1	Over
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+310	-470	0	Under
PIT T. Riemsdyk	0.5	+2100	–	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under

2 of 18 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+255	-330	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+106	-115	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+120	-155	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+196	-250	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+215	-225	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+196	-205	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+270	-310	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-140	+105	1	Over

4 of 18 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	-115	-110	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+126	-140	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-128	+110	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-200	+160	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+124	-145	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+106	-125	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-215	+165	1	Over

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+310	-650	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+320	-700	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+280	-450	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+210	-240	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+170	-260	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+235	-400	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+220	-375	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+225	-250	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+175	-235	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ C. Talbot	24.5	-108	-122	20	Under
PIT S. Murashov	24.5	-125	+100	43	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PIT T. Riemsdyk	1.5	-150	+110	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEgor Chinakhov PIT Faces CBJ, his team until Dec 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.2, CBJ 3.2	PIT 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.1, CBJ 27.9	PIT 22, CBJ 45
Win chance	CBJ 50%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	3	1.14	1	24%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	3	0.84	0	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	0	0.78	0	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	2	0.85	1	31%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	3	1.06	0	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	0	0.81	1	19%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	3	0.81	1	25%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.0	3	0.54	0	21%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	3	0.50	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	7	0.74	0	23%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.8	1	0.59	0	25%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.7	3	0.80	0	27%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	1	0.58	0	21%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.39	0	19%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	2	0.46	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	3	0.57	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	2	0.39	2	13%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.48	0	17%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	4	0.38	1	17%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	3	0.50	2	12%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	0	0.40	0	16%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.2	5	0.37	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	4	0.39	0	12%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	0	0.29	0	9%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.1	1	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	2	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	0	0.34	1	7%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.34	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.18	0	7%	0
PIT T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.7	1	0.25	0	3%	0
CBJ E. Andrae	0.6	1	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.