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Game Recap
PIT3
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
CHI5

CHI beat PIT 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.69 expected goals to 3.45. T. Teravainen led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Knight stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT1113
CHI2125
  1. 1st 0:28CHIT. Teravainen0.19 xG
  2. 1st 6:57PITS. Crosby0.10 xG
  3. 1st 17:50CHIR. KantserovPP0.17 xG
  4. 2nd 10:32CHIR. Kantserov0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 17:51PITN. Robertson0.31 xG
  6. 3rd 9:17PITS. Crosby0.44 xG
  7. 3rd 15:42CHIT. Teravainen0.01 xG
  8. 3rd 19:50CHIT. BertuzziEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

PITCHI
27Shots on goal20
3.45Expected goals2.69
61Shot attempts32
225v5 shots on goal17
0/4Power play1/2
14Hits17
7Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways24
6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.45 xGCHI 2.69 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCHI goal, 0:28PIT goal, 6:57CHI goal, 17:50CHI goal, 10:32PIT goal, 17:51PIT goal, 9:17CHI goal, 15:42CHI goal, 19:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT27 on goal, 3 scored
CHI19 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CrosbyC2022100019:205:57
B. LizotteC011220+1013:460:03
C. DewarC011210+2012:330:03
N. RobertsonLW101301+2011:260:03
E. MalkinC000301-1020:265:38
R. RakellRW000410-1019:475:46
B. KindelC000200-2017:055:30
T. NovakC0000100016:352:06
E. ChinakhovRW0001010216:202:00
B. RustRW000121-1015:580:25
A. KuzmenkoLW000100-2011:551:55
V. KoivunenRW000100-2011:142:00
E. KarlssonD022100-1020:245:36
S. GirardD011110+1018:230:11
K. LetangD000020-1219:442:41
D. CarlileD0002220019:160:00
K. KorczakD0001110019:140:06
S. StastneyD000000-1015:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Murashov19154.78957:57Loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TeravainenC213300+2016:440:01
R. KantserovRW2024100018:522:57
A. FrondellC0221100017:260:03
T. BertuzziLW112300+2016:062:58
C. BedardC011310+1021:062:55
P. KaneRW0110010220:042:52
C. SmithRW0110200212:360:00
R. GreeneC011010+1010:390:00
J. GreenwayLW0000100013:340:00
O. MooreC000000-109:340:02
R. DonatoC000201-108:440:00
D. ToninatoC000030-108:250:00
B. ByramD011021+1424:372:56
A. LevshunovD011123+1021:330:00
A. VlasicD000012-1021:500:07
I. ColeD0002230018:540:04
W. KaiserD000103+1016:240:00
S. RinzelD0000000014:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight27243.88960:00Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1T. Novak14:29E. Chinakhov14:20E. Malkin12:50
Line 2B. Rust11:59R. Rakell11:58S. Crosby11:20
Line 3C. Dewar11:07B. Lizotte12:06N. Robertson11:23
Line 4B. Kindel10:15V. Koivunen9:09A. Kuzmenko9:55
Pair 1S. Girard18:12K. Korczak16:05
Pair 2K. Letang15:04S. Stastney15:25
Pair 3E. Karlsson12:51D. Carlile16:22

CHI

Line 1P. Kane17:07C. Bedard17:15R. Kantserov15:41
Line 2A. Frondell12:51T. Teravainen11:44T. Bertuzzi11:53
Line 3R. Donato8:44O. Moore9:32D. Toninato8:25
Line 4C. Smith9:09R. Greene8:25J. Greenway9:10
Pair 1B. Byram21:01A. Levshunov18:12
Pair 2I. Cole14:00A. Vlasic15:02
Pair 3S. Rinzel14:49W. Kaiser11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CHI C. Bedard3.5+135-1553Under
CHI A. Frondell2.5+148-1751Under
PIT B. Rust2.5+136-1451Under
PIT E. Chinakhov2.5+135-1751Under
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+130-1401Under
PIT E. Malkin2.5+122-1353Over
CHI P. Kane2.5+100-1100Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5-106-1104Over
PIT S. Crosby2.5+106-1252Under
CHI B. Byram1.5-102-1200Under
PIT B. Kindel1.5-150+1302Over
PIT K. Letang1.5-125+1000Under
CHI R. Donato1.5+130-1552Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5-125+1063Over
PIT T. Novak1.5-130+1000Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.4, CHI 2.7PIT 3, CHI 5
Total goals6.18
Shots on goalPIT 29.0, CHI 24.8PIT 27, CHI 20
Win chancePIT 61%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CHI C. Bedard2.931.00131%0
PIT R. Rakell2.740.87032%0
PIT S. Crosby2.721.15235%2
PIT B. Rust2.610.88032%0
CHI P. Kane2.500.90127%0
CHI A. Frondell2.510.75224%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.410.87217%0
PIT E. Malkin2.430.92028%0
PIT B. Kindel2.220.59023%0
PIT E. Chinakhov2.110.57022%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.930.74229%1
CHI R. Kantserov1.940.67226%2
PIT T. Novak1.700.60022%0
PIT N. Robertson1.630.38118%1
CHI B. Byram1.600.57115%0
PIT K. Letang1.600.48010%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.500.3107%0
PIT C. Dewar1.320.35114%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.310.3315%0
CHI R. Donato1.320.40017%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.210.50020%0
CHI R. Greene1.200.35115%0
CHI J. Greenway1.200.28012%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.130.52319%2
PIT V. Koivunen1.110.32011%0
CHI C. Smith1.100.26112%0
PIT D. Carlile1.120.2208%0
PIT S. Girard1.010.3817%0
CHI O. Moore1.000.33010%0
CHI W. Kaiser0.910.2406%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.920.36114%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.900.2604%0
PIT K. Korczak0.810.2803%0
PIT S. Stastney0.700.1604%0
CHI I. Cole0.720.2204%0
CHI D. Toninato0.700.1807%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.