PIT beat DAL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.51. PIT outshot DAL 40 to 24. S. Crosby scored three for PIT. M. Grzelcyk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. T. Jarry stopped 21 of 24.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.59 xGDAL 2.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:29 | 4:21 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:12 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:50 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:46 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 3:50 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:24 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:09 | 1:15 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 24:30 | 1:46 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:04 | 3:31 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:05 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Dadonov | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:27 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:34 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:15 | 2:11 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:08 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 17:02 | 2:11 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:09 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:31 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:21 | 1:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:15 | 2:07 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:35 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 59:40 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.8, DAL 3.6 | PIT 5, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 28.7, DAL 29.6 | PIT 40, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 63% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 5 | 0.98 | 4 | 30% | 3 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 3 | 1.12 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.2 | 5 | 0.45 | 3 | 16% | 3 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.