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Game Recap
PIT3
FLA4
FLA beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 1.99. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Letang had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 11:25FLAS. Reinhart0.14 xG
- 1st 14:26PITB. RustPP0.15 xG
- 1st 19:25PITB. Rust0.09 xG
- 2nd 6:51PITE. MalkinPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 9:25FLAS. ReinhartPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 14:29FLAA. Lundell0.07 xG
Team Stats
PITFLA
27Shots on goal31
1.99Expected goals3.42
53Shot attempts74
205v5 shots on goal22
2/3Power play1/2
21Hits31
18Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways9
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.99 xGFLA 3.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 2:43 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:38 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 2:16 |
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:42 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:10 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:48 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:44 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:19 | 1:16 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:10 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:40 | 0:43 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 2:02 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:02 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:51 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:51 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:02 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:51 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:02 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:57 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 29:11 | 0:51 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:51 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 30:40 | 2:02 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 64:49 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.8, FLA 3.5 | PIT 3, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 25.9, FLA 33.5 | PIT 27, FLA 31 |
| Win chance | FLA 62% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 5 | 1.02 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.4 | 0 | 0.93 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 3 | 28% | 2 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 1 | 1.06 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.4 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.