PIT beat NJD 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 2.68. E. Malkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Malkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. T. Jarry stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.45 xGNJD 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 4:36 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 4:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:28 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:58 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 1:26 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:48 |
| V. Ponomarev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:51 | 3:38 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 | 1:48 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:55 | 1:28 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:55 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 2:46 |
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 0:57 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:18 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 5:17 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 5:02 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:41 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 3:12 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:45 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:38 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:54 | 5:22 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:02 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 23 | 21 | 3 | .913 | 58:06 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.9, NJD 3.3 | PIT 4, NJD 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 26.4, NJD 28.8 | PIT 24, NJD 28 |
| Win chance | NJD 57% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 4 | 0.99 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 0 | 1.04 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 5 | 1.14 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.9 | 5 | 0.73 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD D. Sprong | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 6 | 0.69 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NJD S. Casey | 1.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT V. Ponomarev | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.