Game Recap: PIT 4, OTT 3 (SO), March 26, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT4

Final/SOThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

OTT3

PIT beat OTT 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.63 expected goals to 3.81. PIT outshot OTT 40 to 29. R. Rakell led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). E. Karlsson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Skinner stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	1	1	1	4
OTT	1	1	1	0	3

1st 4:28OTTD. BathersonPP0.08 xG
1st 13:46PITR. Rakell0.08 xG
2nd 1:50OTTN. Cousins0.15 xG
2nd 3:45PITE. Karlsson0.06 xG
3rd 1:43PITR. RakellPP0.18 xG
3rd 3:58OTTD. Batherson0.53 xG

Team Stats

PITOTT

40Shots on goal29

4.63Expected goals3.81

78Shot attempts62

285v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play1/2

15Hits31

15Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways18

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.63 xGOTT 3.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT38 on goal, 3 scored

OTT28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	2	1	3	6	1	1	+1	0	20:52	1:54
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	4	0	3	+1	0	20:32	1:54
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:41	0:39
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	21:24	1:43
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:44	2:12
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:14	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	17:25	0:51
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:37	0:20
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:36	0:35
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:18	0:00
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	6:39	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	2	3	8	0	1	+1	2	26:08	1:54
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:39	0:04
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	21:11	0:39
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	21:02	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	16:12	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	29	26	3	.897	65:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	3	2	0	+1	0	23:21	1:44
D. Batherson	RW	2	0	2	4	3	0	+1	0	19:41	1:39
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	4	6	0	0	0	19:01	1:48
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	12:32	0:00
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	18:24	1:42
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:21	1:20
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	16:08	1:17
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:37	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:29	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	11:55	1:15
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:23	1:11
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:00	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	27:48	1:18
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	27:00	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	22:22	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:00	0:00
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:42	1:41
J. Donovan	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	40	37	3	.925	65:00	OT loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust16:33R. Rakell17:08S. Crosby6:39

Line 2E. Chinakhov17:39A. Mantha16:25T. Novak14:46

Line 3C. Dewar15:49E. Soderblom12:25N. Acciari12:57

Line 4V. Koivunen10:18J. Brazeau10:01B. Kindel12:41

Pair 1E. Karlsson21:11P. Wotherspoon19:55

Pair 2K. Letang18:36S. Girard20:40

Pair 3R. Shea13:54C. Clifton14:43

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson15:55T. Stützle19:14C. Giroux14:38

Line 2B. Tkachuk14:33D. Cozens14:22R. Greig14:27

Line 3M. Amadio14:28S. Pinto14:21N. Cousins12:32

Line 4W. Foegele10:12F. Zetterlund10:40L. Eller7:49

Pair 1T. Kleven23:53A. Zub21:49

Pair 2J. Spence23:31C. Yakemchuk14:34

Pair 3J. Donovan9:15N. Matinpalo16:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, OTT 3.3	PIT 4, OTT 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	PIT 24.0, OTT 29.2	PIT 40, OTT 29
Win chance	OTT 58%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	4	0.87	1	32%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	4	0.83	1	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	6	0.74	3	28%	2
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	3	0.66	0	23%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	1	1.01	0	33%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	3	0.99	2	30%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.1	2	0.56	0	23%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	3	0.62	0	25%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	8	0.73	3	15%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	4	0.77	2	26%	2
PIT B. Kindel	1.6	2	0.39	1	18%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.6	1	0.52	1	9%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	2	0.64	0	24%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.6	1	0.32	1	7%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.42	0	17%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	1	0.37	0	18%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	4	0.52	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	1	0.42	0	9%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.3	2	0.54	0	17%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.48	0	20%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.2	1	0.35	0	16%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	2	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	1	0.35	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	2	0.31	1	12%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.8	1	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	0.8	0	0.21	0	7%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.29	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.27	0	5%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	3	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.