Game Recap: PIT 2, PHI 3, February 8, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalSat, Feb 8, 2025Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat PIT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.64 expected goals to 4.58. PIT outshot PHI 33 to 20. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Beauvillier had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Ersson stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	1	2
PHI	1	1	1	3

1st 1:44PHIS. Laughton0.16 xG
2nd 4:19PITE. Karlsson0.05 xG
2nd 12:26PHIG. Hathaway0.07 xG
3rd 4:27PHIT. Konecny0.06 xG
3rd 5:42PITA. Beauvillier0.51 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI

33Shots on goal20

4.58Expected goals1.64

91Shot attempts47

275v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/1

15Hits18

16Blocked shots34

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways21

10Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.58 xGPHI 1.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT33 on goal, 2 scored

PHI19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:28	2:06
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	4	2	1	+2	0	20:16	2:01
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	9	4	1	+1	0	19:15	0:51
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:28	1:26
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:41	2:30
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	14:35	0:05
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:30	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	13:02	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:44	1:21
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:48	1:15
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00
V. Ponomarev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:16	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	0	25:03	2:11
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	20:00	1:16
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	23:16	2:09
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:41	0:04
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:42	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	20	17	3	.850	58:18	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	20:02	1:27
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:53	1:27
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	2	3	2	+1	0	16:33	1:27
G. Hathaway	RW	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	10:52	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	19:27	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	18:20	1:27
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:03	0:00
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	17:28	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:54	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:48	0:00
J. Gaucher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:53	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	5:14	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	26:15	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	21:11	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	+1	2	23:00	1:27
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	0	0	19:07	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:57	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	33	31	2	.939	59:48	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.7, PHI 2.9	PIT 2, PHI 3
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	PIT 25.4, PHI 29.0	PIT 33, PHI 20
Win chance	PHI 54%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	2	0.78	1	29%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	3	1.09	2	34%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	4	0.79	1	16%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.1	1	0.61	0	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	3	0.66	0	23%	0
PHI S. Laughton	2.0	2	0.56	1	19%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	1	0.51	0	16%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.9	4	0.43	1	18%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.9	1	0.50	1	11%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	3	0.55	0	13%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.60	0	22%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.8	1	0.57	0	20%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	9	0.36	1	15%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.7	0	0.55	0	19%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.7	1	0.37	0	14%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.5	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PHI C. York	1.5	2	0.36	1	9%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	0	0.42	0	15%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	0	0.35	0	6%	0
PHI A. Kuzmenko	1.4	1	0.65	1	26%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.4	1	0.32	1	14%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.4	2	0.24	0	5%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.40	1	5%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	3	0.37	1	16%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
PHI E. Johnson	1.0	2	0.15	0	6%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
PIT P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	2	0.18	0	10%	0
PIT V. Ponomarev	0.9	0	0.29	0	11%	0
PIT M. Nieto	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	1	0.16	0	5%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.10	0	5%	0
PIT V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.