Game Recap: PIT 2, PHI 3 (SO), October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT2

Final/SOTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 2.07. PHI outshot PIT 34 to 26. B. Brink led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Seeler had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Ersson stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	0	1	0	2
PHI	1	1	0	1	3

1st 10:19PITJ. Brazeau0.08 xG
1st 17:25PHIB. BrinkPP0.27 xG
2nd 2:46PHIT. Konecny0.05 xG
3rd 11:57PITS. Crosby0.03 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI

26Shots on goal34

2.07Expected goals2.95

53Shot attempts63

175v5 shots on goal27

0/4Power play1/4

15Hits20

12Blocked shots14

48Penalty minutes48

18Giveaways15

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.07 xGPHI 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 2 scored

PHI33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:33	6:36
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	10	23:15	6:30
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:50	4:25
F. Hallander	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:46	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	15:02	1:24
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	4	20:22	7:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:08	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10	13:10	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:47	1:22
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:38	1:16
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:21	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:08	1:07
M. Dumba	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	4	14:33	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	+1	0	31:42	6:43
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10	23:35	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:10	1:16
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	10	17:41	0:20
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:12	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	34	32	2	.941	65:00	OT loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Brink	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	2	17:51	3:23
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	21:34	3:23
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:02	1:44
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	12	18:52	4:35
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	17:28	2:16
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	10	20:21	4:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	10	15:27	1:47
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	14:50	2:14
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:48	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	9:39	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:53	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	28:18	3:23
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	28:09	0:04
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	10	21:33	2:55
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	6	1	3	-1	0	20:33	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	12:53	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	26	24	2	.923	64:44	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:24F. Hallander15:19B. Rust15:00

Line 2E. Malkin13:14J. Brazeau13:38A. Mantha14:02

Line 3V. Koivunen10:22B. Kindel11:25T. Novak10:01

Line 4N. Acciari10:05B. Lizotte10:26C. Dewar8:59

Pair 1E. Karlsson20:48P. Wotherspoon19:00

Pair 2K. Letang17:40R. Shea14:21

Pair 3M. Dumba14:29O. Pickering13:07

PHI

Line 1B. Brink14:28T. Foerster13:48N. Cates13:42

Line 2S. Couturier13:45T. Konecny13:29O. Tippett13:09

Line 3T. Zegras13:39M. Michkov12:36C. Dvorak12:27

Line 4N. Deslauriers9:22G. Hathaway8:48R. Abols8:53

Pair 1T. Sanheim20:45C. York20:24

Pair 2N. Seeler18:06J. Drysdale18:38

Pair 3N. Juulsen9:27E. Zamula11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, PHI 3.1	PIT 2, PHI 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PIT 24.9, PHI 28.1	PIT 26, PHI 34
Win chance	PHI 53%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.9	3	0.69	0	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	1	0.84	1	31%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.5	3	0.79	0	26%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.4	2	0.75	1	21%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	5	0.93	1	30%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	4	1.05	1	33%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.1	2	0.68	0	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	5	0.71	0	14%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.9	2	0.74	1	23%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.8	1	0.47	0	11%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	3	0.78	0	24%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	1	0.60	1	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	2	0.41	0	10%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	3	0.63	2	19%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	2	0.33	0	16%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.4	1	0.53	1	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	0	0.47	0	17%	0
PIT F. Hallander	1.3	2	0.31	1	13%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.3	0	0.47	0	12%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	6	0.28	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.41	0	9%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.2	1	0.41	0	17%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.39	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	2	0.28	0	12%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.1	3	0.38	1	16%	1
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	0	0.16	1	4%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.9	1	0.12	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.21	0	6%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.14	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	2	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.