Game Recap: PIT 5, PHI 1, December 1, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT5

FinalMon, Dec 1, 2025Every game that night

PHI1

PIT beat PHI 5-1, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 3.10. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Zegras had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. T. Jarry stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	2	2	5
PHI	0	1	0	1

1st 9:18PITS. Crosby0.42 xG
2nd 5:36PHIT. FoersterPP0.09 xG
2nd 8:08PITS. CrosbyPP0.15 xG
2nd 15:52PITB. RustPP0.09 xG
3rd 13:52PITT. NovakPP0.16 xG
3rd 15:33PITK. Hayes0.15 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI

27Shots on goal29

2.79Expected goals3.10

53Shot attempts54

195v5 shots on goal20

3/4Power play1/7

18Hits27

12Blocked shots13

14Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways20

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.79 xGPHI 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 5 scored

PHI29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	2	3	2	0	2	+2	0	19:05	2:42
S. Crosby	C	2	0	2	5	1	0	+2	2	18:13	2:54
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	16:09	3:57
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:36	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	13:12	1:16
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:26	1:16
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:07	2:36
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:59	1:04
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:12	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:25	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:39	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	2	21:13	2:46
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	20:47	0:03
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	20:04	1:11
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:33	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	17:55	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	19:37	5:17
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:20	5:22
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	8:50	3:08
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:09	4:18
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	16:56	5:24
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:00	4:24
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	15:22	3:52
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:15	3:09
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:40	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:19	0:15
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:40	0:13
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	10:54	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:08	5:23
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	19:23	2:11
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:17	1:03
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:14	3:01
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:58	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	27	22	5	.815	60:00	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:01B. Rust13:15K. Hayes13:34

Line 2V. Koivunen12:55B. Kindel11:52R. McGroarty11:21

Line 3E. Malkin12:11A. Mantha11:14T. Novak10:28

Line 4B. Imama9:39C. Dewar8:00B. Lizotte8:04

Pair 1C. Clifton16:53R. Graves15:56

Pair 2K. Letang15:59R. Shea15:57

Pair 3E. Karlsson13:36P. Wotherspoon13:50

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett14:45T. Zegras14:13C. Dvorak11:28

Line 2R. Abols12:45N. Grebenkin12:27G. Hathaway10:34

Line 3S. Couturier10:32B. Brink11:23M. Michkov11:32

Line 4T. Konecny11:22N. Cates10:39T. Foerster5:42

Pair 1E. Andrae17:12J. Drysdale16:44

Pair 2N. Seeler15:53N. Juulsen14:48

Pair 3T. Sanheim14:11C. York13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, PHI 2.9	PIT 5, PHI 1
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	PIT 25.6, PHI 26.9	PIT 27, PHI 29
Win chance	PIT 52%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	2	0.65	0	26%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.3	2	0.79	3	29%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	5	0.99	2	32%	2
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	2	0.85	1	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	4	0.66	0	24%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	6	0.77	1	25%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.70	2	15%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.9	2	0.77	2	24%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.59	1	28%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	1	0.57	0	17%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	2	0.40	0	19%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.7	1	0.43	1	17%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.7	0	0.57	0	20%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	2	0.46	1	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	0	0.43	0	10%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	1	0.54	0	19%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.52	1	20%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.57	1	23%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	4	0.48	0	17%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.30	0	13%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	2	0.41	0	16%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	1	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.2	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.22	0	3%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	2	0.42	0	8%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.35	0	8%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.31	0	14%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.0	1	0.32	0	9%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.26	1	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.24	0	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	2	0.16	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.24	0	7%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	1	0.09	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	1	0.19	0	9%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.5	2	0.09	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.