Game Recap: PIT 2, PHI 5, April 22, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalWed, Apr 22, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

PHI5

PHI beat PIT 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 2.60. N. Cates led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Vladar stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	0	1	2
PHI	0	3	2	5

1st 4:18PITE. MalkinPP0.18 xG
2nd 5:18PHIT. ZegrasPP0.08 xG
2nd 9:06PHIR. Ristolainen0.04 xG
2nd 11:18PHIN. Seeler0.03 xG
3rd 9:39PITE. KarlssonPP0.10 xG
3rd 12:30PHIN. CatesPP0.28 xG
3rd 18:48PHIO. TippettEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI

30Shots on goal29

2.60Expected goals3.57

66Shot attempts53

175v5 shots on goal17

2/5Power play2/3

27Hits44

13Blocked shots13

22Penalty minutes28

12Giveaways15

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.60 xGPHI 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT29 on goal, 2 scored

PHI28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	24:34	7:54
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	2	23:00	7:52
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	4	20:25	5:52
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	20:06	7:50
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-3	0	12:42	0:34
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:07	2:34
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:32	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	12:28	0:32
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	11:58	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:37	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	10:27	0:30
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:24	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	4	28:59	5:50
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	22:08	2:32
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	5	4	-1	0	19:37	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	17:59	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	13:20	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	9:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	24	4	.857	58:01	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Couturier	C	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	4	16:37	0:00
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	15:53	3:23
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	13:08	2:03
P. Martone	RW	0	1	1	2	6	1	+1	2	16:30	3:04
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	1	11	1	+1	0	14:17	0:40
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	17:29	3:23
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	17:13	0:59
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	16:28	0:41
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	14:41	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	2	12:02	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	8:08	0:40
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:46	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	2	2	4	1	3	0	0	18:05	3:15
N. Juulsen	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+2	0	12:29	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	24:33	0:40
N. Seeler	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	+2	2	16:08	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	25:08	0:08
C. York	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	2	20:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby12:27R. Rakell14:04B. Rust11:51

Line 2N. Acciari8:56B. Lizotte9:56C. Dewar9:19

Line 3A. Mantha10:56T. Novak10:08E. Malkin9:42

Line 4B. Kindel8:43J. Brazeau8:24E. Chinakhov8:12

Pair 1K. Letang15:20S. Girard16:12

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon13:51E. Karlsson16:52

Pair 3R. Shea10:39C. Clifton8:53

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny14:11P. Martone13:26C. Dvorak12:22

Line 2S. Couturier12:34G. Hathaway10:32L. Glendening9:27

Line 3O. Tippett10:20T. Foerster10:02T. Zegras9:42

Line 4M. Michkov6:47N. Cates6:16D. Barkey6:39

Pair 1R. Ristolainen17:38T. Sanheim17:41

Pair 2N. Seeler13:20N. Juulsen10:28

Pair 3J. Drysdale11:34C. York11:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.1, PHI 3.0	PIT 2, PHI 5
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	PIT 24.6, PHI 25.6	PIT 30, PHI 29
Win chance	PIT 50%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI P. Martone	2.8	2	0.78	1	23%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	1	0.67	1	28%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	3	0.72	1	28%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.3	4	0.82	1	31%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	2	0.86	1	26%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	3	0.97	1	31%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	2	0.71	1	14%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.0	3	0.55	0	22%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	3	0.60	0	28%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.9	1	0.81	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	1	0.63	0	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.7	2	0.64	0	20%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	2	0.70	2	23%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.41	1	7%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.6	3	0.59	2	19%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.53	1	20%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	2	0.61	0	24%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	3	0.47	2	15%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	0	0.38	0	17%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	0	0.45	0	12%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	4	0.39	2	10%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.2	1	0.40	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	3	0.26	0	12%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	3	0.31	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	2	0.18	1	4%	1
PHI D. Barkey	0.9	0	0.38	0	12%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.8	1	0.32	0	14%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	1	0.22	0	11%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.8	1	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	1	0.28	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.32	0	6%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	0	0.12	2	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.