Game Recap: PIT 0, PHI 1 (OT), April 29, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT0

Final/OTWed, Apr 29, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

PHI1

PHI beat PIT 1-0 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 4.22. PIT outshot PHI 42 to 32. C. Dewar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Vladar stopped 42 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	0	0	0	1	1

OT 17:32PHIC. York0.03 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI

42Shots on goal32

4.22Expected goals2.46

83Shot attempts55

355v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play0/2

26Hits45

15Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways22

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.22 xGPHI 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT40 on goal, 0 scored

PHI32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	5	0	0	0	0	23:09	2:19
B. Rust	RW	5	0	1	0	0	22:17	2:28
R. Rakell	RW	4	2	0	0	0	22:10	2:27
C. Dewar	C	6	2	0	0	0	20:17	0:00
E. Malkin	C	3	0	0	0	0	19:39	3:24
B. Kindel	C	2	1	3	-1	0	19:28	1:32
N. Acciari	C	1	3	1	0	2	18:39	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	2	0	1	-1	0	18:21	1:40
B. Lizotte	C	0	2	1	0	0	18:15	0:00
T. Novak	C	2	0	0	0	0	17:22	0:28
E. Chinakhov	RW	2	1	0	0	0	16:42	1:32
E. Soderblom	LW	1	4	0	-1	0	15:41	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	4	2	0	-1	0	36:22	2:24
K. Letang	D	2	4	2	0	2	30:46	1:37
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	4	2	0	0	29:54	0:03
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	25:46	0:06
R. Shea	D	2	0	2	-1	0	21:04	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	2	0	0	7:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	32	31	1	.969	77:32	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:26	1:51
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	16:43	1:46
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	23:03	2:07
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	21:48	0:19
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:09	2:00
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:59	1:45
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	20:33	0:01
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	20:18	1:56
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:35	2:16
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:47	1:53
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	16:10	0:00
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	15:28	0:01
C. York	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	28:34	0:13
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	31:20	0:24
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	30:12	1:43
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	29:59	1:45
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:50	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	6	3	0	0	14:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	42	42	0	1.000	77:32	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby20:49R. Rakell19:43B. Rust18:22

Line 2N. Acciari17:57C. Dewar17:47B. Lizotte15:46

Line 3A. Mantha16:41E. Soderblom15:41B. Kindel17:05

Line 4E. Malkin16:15E. Chinakhov15:10T. Novak16:54

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon27:17E. Karlsson31:22

Pair 2K. Letang28:38S. Girard24:44

Pair 3R. Shea19:41I. Solovyov7:48

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett21:21T. Zegras20:56P. Martone19:09

Line 2S. Couturier18:15T. Foerster17:53L. Glendening15:04

Line 3D. Barkey16:54C. Dvorak16:56T. Konecny17:19

Line 4A. Bump15:27M. Michkov15:35N. Cates13:15

Pair 1T. Sanheim29:00R. Ristolainen26:25

Pair 2J. Drysdale28:14C. York26:02

Pair 3N. Seeler15:09N. Juulsen14:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, PHI 3.0	PIT 0, PHI 1
Total goals	6.1	1
Shots on goal	PIT 24.2, PHI 25.6	PIT 42, PHI 32
Win chance	PHI 50%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI P. Martone	2.6	2	0.72	0	22%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	3	0.66	0	27%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	4	0.77	0	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.3	5	0.82	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	5	1.03	0	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	4	0.75	0	16%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	3	0.81	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.9	2	0.84	0	27%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.57	0	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.8	0	0.73	0	23%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.8	2	0.47	0	20%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.7	3	0.64	0	20%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	2	0.45	0	8%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.6	3	0.57	1	19%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	1	0.57	1	18%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.5	2	0.54	0	20%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	2	0.49	0	19%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.4	3	0.45	0	14%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.4	2	0.55	0	22%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.3	2	0.43	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	0	0.39	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.47	0	12%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	5	0.32	1	7%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.1	6	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.27	0	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	0.9	1	0.36	0	12%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.8	1	0.17	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.8	0	0.33	0	13%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	1	0.29	0	3%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.8	0	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	2	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.