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Game Recap
PIT7
FinalWed, Sep 30, 2026Every game that night
PHI0

PIT beat PHI 7-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.48 expected goals to 1.51. PIT outshot PHI 38 to 19. F. Hallander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Lizotte had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Silovs stopped 19 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT2327
PHI0000
  1. 1st 7:26PITN. Robertson0.03 xG
  2. 1st 15:44PITV. Koivunen0.18 xG
  3. 2nd 5:03PITE. MalkinPP0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 7:26PITH. Lapierre0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 10:23PITF. Hallander0.29 xG
  6. 3rd 11:52PITN. RobertsonSH0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 16:37PITE. ChinakhovPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

PITPHI
38Shots on goal19
4.48Expected goals1.51
61Shot attempts47
315v5 shots on goal11
2/4Power play0/3
23Hits28
11Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes10
11Giveaways21
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.48 xGPHI 1.51 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdPIT goal, 7:26PIT goal, 15:44PIT goal, 5:03PIT goal, 7:26PIT goal, 10:23PIT goal, 11:52PIT goal, 16:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT37 on goal, 7 scored
PHI19 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. HallanderC123310+4010:550:00
N. RobertsonLW202401+2215:020:00
H. LapierreC112140+3013:022:06
R. RakellRW011230+1018:324:52
S. CrosbyC011320+1017:394:45
E. ChinakhovRW1013100016:585:01
T. NovakC0110010016:044:06
E. MalkinC1012000015:471:58
V. KoivunenRW101200+3013:502:42
C. DewarC0000410214:510:00
B. LizotteC0004010013:130:00
E. SoderblomLW0000200012:390:00
S. GirardD022210+3021:021:47
K. KorczakD022312+3018:310:00
E. KarlssonD011301+1019:595:04
K. LetangD011420+1018:441:49
D. CarlileD011210+1416:300:00
T. van RiemsdykD000014+1020:420:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs191901.00060:00Win
S. Murashov000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. FoersterRW000110-2017:082:34
T. ZegrasC000100-2016:252:35
M. MichkovRW000100-1015:472:32
N. AcciariC000131-3015:200:13
S. CouturierC000010-1015:040:13
C. DvorakC000221-1014:581:48
T. KonecnyRW000230-1214:473:16
A. BumpLW0001200014:393:06
N. CatesLW000100-1014:171:41
O. TippettRW000460-1014:113:12
P. MartoneRW000000-1214:052:29
C. GrundstromRW000141-2012:010:00
C. YorkD000101-2021:083:17
T. SanheimD000300-2020:150:21
N. SeelerD0000210219:540:00
S. BenoitD000020-1218:290:00
R. RistolainenD000012-1017:400:13
J. DrysdaleD000011-3217:212:30
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar38317.81659:41Loss
J. Woll000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1N. Robertson14:04S. Crosby12:35R. Rakell11:36
Line 2E. Malkin13:49E. Chinakhov11:24T. Novak11:58
Line 3C. Dewar12:33E. Soderblom10:49B. Lizotte10:47
Line 4H. Lapierre10:56V. Koivunen11:08F. Hallander8:28
Pair 1S. Girard16:45K. Korczak15:51
Pair 2K. Letang16:32T. Riemsdyk17:23
Pair 3E. Karlsson12:40D. Carlile14:57

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak11:34T. Foerster12:41T. Konecny10:16
Line 2S. Couturier11:23C. Grundstrom12:01N. Acciari11:55
Line 3O. Tippett10:59T. Zegras13:50P. Martone11:36
Line 4N. Cates9:44A. Bump11:14M. Michkov12:56
Pair 1N. Seeler18:02S. Benoit18:00
Pair 2R. Ristolainen15:13T. Sanheim15:15
Pair 3C. York13:04J. Drysdale14:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
PIT E. Chinakhov2.5+130-1653Over
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+150-1763Over
PHI O. Tippett2.5+110-1304Over
PHI P. Martone2.5+106-1300Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+130-1552Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+138-1653Over
PIT E. Malkin1.5-150+1202Over
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+100-1250Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-135+1051Under
PHI N. Cates1.5+105-1451Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-150+1151Under
PHI T. Konecny1.5-152+1352Over
PIT T. Novak1.5-140+1200Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5-138+1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamNoel Acciari PHI Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.2, PHI 3.0PIT 7, PHI 0
Total goals6.27
Shots on goalPIT 26.0, PHI 25.7PIT 38, PHI 19
Win chancePIT 53%PIT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett2.740.65027%0
PHI P. Martone2.600.69021%0
PIT R. Rakell2.520.74128%0
PIT S. Crosby2.430.99131%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.430.81117%0
PIT E. Malkin2.120.78124%1
PHI T. Foerster2.010.55027%0
PHI T. Konecny2.020.80026%0
PHI S. Couturier1.900.54017%0
PHI T. Zegras1.910.75024%0
PIT E. Chinakhov1.830.48119%1
PHI M. Michkov1.710.54018%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.720.56018%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.600.3806%0
PHI N. Cates1.610.56018%0
PIT N. Robertson1.540.37218%2
PIT T. Novak1.500.48118%0
PHI C. Grundstrom1.510.28015%0
PHI A. Bump1.510.47019%0
PIT K. Letang1.440.44110%0
PIT F. Hallander1.430.29312%1
PHI T. Sanheim1.430.47013%0
PHI N. Acciari1.410.31014%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.400.40010%0
PIT C. Dewar1.300.33014%0
PHI C. York1.310.3508%0
PIT E. Soderblom1.200.27013%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.020.2819%1
PHI N. Seeler1.000.1605%0
PHI S. Benoit0.900.1303%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.940.34013%0
PIT S. Girard0.820.3025%0
PIT H. Lapierre0.810.2929%1
PIT T. Riemsdyk0.800.2304%0
PIT D. Carlile0.820.1014%0
PIT K. Korczak0.530.1622%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.