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Game Recap
PIT1
TBL6
TBL beat PIT 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 1.02. TBL outshot PIT 27 to 15. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 14 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
- 1st 12:13TBLA. Cirelli0.29 xG
- 1st 13:30TBLR. McDonagh0.02 xG
- 1st 15:12TBLA. Cirelli0.12 xG
- 1st 16:00TBLB. Point0.50 xG
- 2nd 15:31TBLN. KucherovPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:19TBLB. Hagel0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:15PITB. Rust0.05 xG
Team Stats
PITTBL
15Shots on goal27
1.02Expected goals3.23
41Shot attempts58
135v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/4
37Hits10
16Blocked shots16
18Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways14
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.02 xGTBL 3.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:38 | 1:03 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:04 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:25 | 1:16 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 1:12 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:46 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:44 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:58 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:58 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:02 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:57 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 7 | 3 | 4 | .429 | 16:00 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 44:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:17 | 2:50 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:57 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:58 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 4:12 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:36 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:44 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 2:12 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:23 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:36 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:31 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 4:20 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 15 | 14 | 1 | .933 | 59:49 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.9, TBL 3.9 | PIT 1, TBL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.2, TBL 31.7 | PIT 15, TBL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 65% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 2 | 1.60 | 3 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 4 | 1.07 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 3 | 1.15 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 1% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.