Game Recap: PIT 4, TBL 3, December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT4

FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

TBL3

PIT beat TBL 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.06 expected goals to 4.50. TBL outshot PIT 40 to 31. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Kucherov had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. T. Jarry stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	2	1	4
TBL	0	1	2	3

1st 6:12PITV. KoivunenPP0.11 xG
2nd 7:53PITE. Malkin0.23 xG
2nd 9:49PITB. KindelPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:46TBLN. Kucherov0.07 xG
3rd 1:17TBLB. HagelPP0.05 xG
3rd 11:44TBLB. Hagel0.25 xG
3rd 17:17PITE. Malkin0.10 xG

Team Stats

PITTBL

31Shots on goal40

3.06Expected goals4.50

50Shot attempts73

255v5 shots on goal21

2/4Power play1/6

21Hits13

14Blocked shots4

17Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways20

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.06 xGTBL 4.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT30 on goal, 4 scored

TBL40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	2	1	3	3	1	0	+2	2	14:58	4:10
T. Novak	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	11:21	1:42
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	5	0	2	-1	0	17:50	4:07
V. Koivunen	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	12:48	1:36
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	11:40	1:45
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:37	4:05
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	21:30	4:04
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:07	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	14:58	1:44
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:43	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:01	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5:38	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	2	25:29	4:15
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	2	20:03	1:34
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:05	0:03
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	20:01	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:40	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	40	37	3	.925	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	1	2	10	0	0	-1	0	25:28	9:40
B. Hagel	LW	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	17:09	3:37
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	26:08	9:39
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:24	5:08
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:16	2:48
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:40	0:56
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:24	8:26
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	16:22	0:02
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:38	0:02
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:41	0:02
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:02	0:35
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	2:33	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	27:49	8:18
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:03	0:04
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	19:31	1:53
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:06	0:05
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	10:57	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	31	27	4	.871	57:48	Loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1K. Hayes13:03S. Crosby16:17B. Rust12:14

Line 2V. Koivunen11:10R. McGroarty12:38B. Kindel8:38

Line 3E. Malkin10:48T. Novak9:39A. Mantha9:55

Line 4C. Dewar6:54B. Lizotte7:46B. Imama5:38

Pair 1C. Clifton13:24R. Graves13:10

Pair 2E. Karlsson14:45P. Wotherspoon15:08

Pair 3K. Letang12:47R. Shea14:21

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:02P. Holmberg13:36Z. Girgensons13:32

Line 2N. Kucherov13:31A. Cirelli12:11B. Hagel8:57

Line 3N. Paul11:16O. Bjorkstrand8:02J. Guentzel13:36

Line 4D. James8:21G. Goncalves5:28C. Douglas2:33

Pair 1D. Raddysh15:41J. Moser18:35

Pair 2C. D'Astous14:49E. Lilleberg13:45

Pair 3M. Crozier10:10D. Carlile10:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDeclan Carlile PIT First game back in Tampa, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces PIT, his team until Feb 20241 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.7, TBL 3.3	PIT 4, TBL 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	PIT 26.0, TBL 28.1	PIT 31, TBL 40
Win chance	TBL 61%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	10	1.60	2	37%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	3	1.06	1	39%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	7	0.98	2	32%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.4	2	0.69	0	27%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	1	0.85	0	30%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.2	2	0.71	2	11%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	6	0.56	1	13%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	3	0.66	3	22%	2
TBL N. Paul	2.0	1	0.58	1	24%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	1	0.69	0	25%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	5	0.35	1	17%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	2	0.58	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	3	0.36	1	9%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.7	3	0.36	0	15%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.50	0	16%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	0	0.43	2	18%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.48	1	20%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	2	0.20	0	3%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	2	0.23	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	1	0.32	0	6%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	1	0.35	0	14%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	3	0.30	0	11%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	2	0.27	1	8%	1
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	1	0.44	0	8%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	3	0.22	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.30	0	4%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	0	0.13	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.8	0	0.30	1	11%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	1	0.19	0	7%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.6	0	0.09	0	7%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	1	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.