Game Recap: PIT 3, TOR 4, November 3, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT3

FinalMon, Nov 3, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat PIT 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.92 expected goals to 3.76. PIT outshot TOR 37 to 20. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). E. Malkin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Stolarz stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	2	1	0	3
TOR	0	0	4	4

1st 13:08PITE. Karlsson0.13 xG
1st 17:56PITB. Kindel0.86 xG
2nd 11:50PITB. KindelPP0.10 xG
3rd 3:31TORA. Matthews0.11 xG
3rd 4:47TORW. Nylander0.06 xG
3rd 6:55TORW. Nylander0.04 xG
3rd 13:43TORB. McMann0.18 xG

Team Stats

PITTOR

37Shots on goal20

3.76Expected goals1.92

77Shot attempts37

265v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play0/1

9Hits35

5Blocked shots24

2Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways22

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.76 xGTOR 1.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT36 on goal, 3 scored

TOR20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	2	0	2	7	2	1	+1	0	22:23	4:46
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	23:43	4:46
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	8	0	0	-2	0	22:33	4:46
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-3	0	20:26	4:29
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:17	0:20
P. Tomasino	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:35	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:02	0:20
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:22	0:20
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:18	0:00
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:24	0:20
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:10	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	27:54	4:37
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	19:41	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	24:35	0:46
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:23	0:00
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:39	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	11:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	20	16	4	.800	57:32	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	2	19:04	1:13
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	4	1	4	+3	0	21:58	1:10
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+3	0	18:56	0:50
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:06	0:51
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:14	0:04
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:21	0:58
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:08	0:58
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	12:11	0:06
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	11:20	0:38
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:48	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:42	1:03
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	8:45	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	20:53	1:05
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	23:15	0:09
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+3	0	22:49	0:55
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	-1	0	21:10	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:13	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	37	34	3	.919	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:21B. Rust13:38E. Malkin15:20

Line 2V. Koivunen14:46T. Novak14:01B. Kindel15:30

Line 3A. Mantha14:21P. Tomasino12:56B. Lizotte11:59

Line 4F. Hallander11:31C. Dewar9:39

Pair 1K. Letang21:06R. Shea18:55

Pair 2E. Karlsson19:38P. Wotherspoon17:43

Pair 3O. Pickering11:05H. Brunicke12:31

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:34M. Knies15:01W. Nylander15:37

Line 2B. McMann14:56D. Joshua11:51N. Roy10:51

Line 3J. Tavares14:23N. Robertson15:15E. Cowan9:39

Line 4C. Jarnkrok8:38S. Blais8:40M. Domi10:42

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson21:40P. Myers13:14

Pair 2M. Rielly19:18B. Carlo16:02

Pair 3J. McCabe17:19S. Benoit13:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Robertson PIT First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20261 A, 3 SOG
Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, TOR 3.4	PIT 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	PIT 27.3, TOR 29.5	PIT 37, TOR 20
Win chance	TOR 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	4	1.24	2	46%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	5	1.14	3	38%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	0	0.94	0	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	2	0.82	1	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	2	0.99	1	31%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	0	0.87	1	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.74	1	15%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	1	0.45	1	22%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	8	0.77	1	23%	0
TOR N. Robertson	2.0	3	0.48	1	22%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.65	2	11%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	1	0.40	0	9%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.7	0	0.46	0	15%	0
PIT F. Hallander	1.6	0	0.32	0	12%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	3	0.56	0	21%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.6	7	0.29	2	15%	2
TOR P. Myers	1.5	2	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.51	0	14%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	1	0.35	1	12%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.4	1	0.45	0	17%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.40	1	7%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	2	0.19	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	3	0.35	1	10%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.1	1	0.38	0	17%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	2	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.35	1	6%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.23	0	3%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PIT H. Brunicke	0.9	1	0.18	0	6%	0
TOR S. Blais	0.9	0	0.28	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	3	0.22	1	7%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.