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Game Recap
PIT4
UTA3
PIT beat UTA 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.49 expected goals to 3.62. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Mantha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Skinner stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:06UTAD. Guenther0.02 xG
- 1st 6:37UTAD. GuentherPP0.48 xG
- 2nd 14:48PITA. ManthaPP0.22 xG
- 2nd 17:26PITT. Novak0.11 xG
- 3rd 1:24PITB. RustPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 4:17UTAI. Cole0.13 xG
- 3rd 8:03PITN. Acciari0.27 xG
Team Stats
PITUTA
23Shots on goal29
2.49Expected goals3.62
41Shot attempts68
175v5 shots on goal23
2/6Power play1/3
21Hits31
18Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes12
17Giveaways12
1Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.49 xGUTA 3.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mantha | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:09 | 7:12 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 6:53 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 7:20 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 7:12 |
| N. Acciari | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 2:03 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:03 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:02 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 2:13 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:58 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:37 |
| A. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:19 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 26:50 | 5:55 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:06 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 3:29 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:35 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:06 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:27 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:25 | 3:27 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | 3:27 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:42 | 0:28 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:09 | 3:27 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:28 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:39 | 0:28 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:28 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:07 | 3:27 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:28 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 57:30 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 1N. Acciari12:37B. Lizotte12:24C. Dewar11:45
Line 2T. Novak10:40V. Koivunen10:51A. Mantha9:57
Line 3E. Soderblom10:55A. Hayes10:06B. Kindel10:14
Line 4R. Rakell11:08E. Chinakhov9:51B. Rust9:26
Pair 1E. Karlsson17:04P. Wotherspoon17:38
Pair 3C. Clifton11:02I. Solovyov10:39
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz14:43C. Keller14:16L. Crouse11:53
Line 2J. Peterka13:44D. Guenther14:03L. Cooley11:43
Line 3M. Carcone9:34J. McBain8:25B. Hayton9:39
Line 4K. Stenlund7:43K. Yamamoto7:53A. Kerfoot6:47
Pair 1M. Weegar16:51M. Sergachev16:20
Pair 3N. Schmidt13:12J. Marino12:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.1, UTA 3.1 | PIT 4, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.0, UTA 26.5 | PIT 23, UTA 29 |
| Win chance | UTA 51% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 5 | 0.85 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.7 | 5 | 0.64 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT A. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT I. Solovyov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.