Game Recap: PIT 2, VGK 6, March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

VGK6

VGK beat PIT 6-2, with the chances close: 2.24 expected goals to 2.57. PIT outshot VGK 26 to 17. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Hayes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 24 of 26.

Team Stats

PITVGK

26Shots on goal17

2.57Expected goals2.24

64Shot attempts41

195v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play0/2

12Hits27

12Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes12

16Giveaways21

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.57 xGVGK 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 2 scored

VGK16 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	22:04	4:21
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:48	4:17
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	4	18:08	1:29
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:52	1:36
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	20:32	4:20
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	2	16:43	2:42
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	14:47	1:40
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:03	1:47
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:08	1:41
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	10:45	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-3	0	10:21	0:00
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	9:31	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	0	19:16	0:13
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-3	0	26:26	4:16
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	23:51	3:31
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	18:42	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	15:06	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	12:55	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	16	11	5	.688	53:02	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+3	4	15:32	3:40
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	19:51	3:36
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	2	17:47	3:47
B. Bowman	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	11:32	0:13
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+2	0	13:47	0:20
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	12:57	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	17:52	3:47
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+3	0	17:07	3:38
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	5	3	0	2	15:59	0:24
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:44	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:35	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
B. McNabb	D	1	0	1	4	4	2	+2	0	23:39	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:14	0:13
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	12:51	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:43	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	18:58	0:22
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	16:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust12:28R. Rakell12:45E. Chinakhov12:23

Line 2A. Mantha14:13V. Koivunen11:07T. Novak10:49

Line 3E. Soderblom10:32A. Hayes9:31B. Kindel10:32

Line 4C. Dewar8:31B. Lizotte8:10N. Acciari7:58

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon15:46E. Karlsson15:23

Pair 2K. Letang15:02R. Shea14:52

Pair 3I. Solovyov12:48C. Clifton12:20

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl12:01P. Dorofeyev11:05M. Marner10:59

Line 2M. Stone11:26I. Barbashev11:36J. Eichel11:10

Line 3B. Howden10:35B. Bowman10:23C. Sissons9:17

Line 4N. Dowd10:02C. Smith10:12K. Kolesar9:57

Pair 1N. Hanifin16:38R. Andersson15:28

Pair 2B. McNabb14:33S. Theodore14:41

Pair 3K. Korczak12:47J. Lauzon12:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, VGK 3.2	PIT 2, VGK 6
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	PIT 25.3, VGK 27.6	PIT 26, VGK 17
Win chance	VGK 54%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	2	1.15	2	33%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	3	0.68	3	33%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.5	0	0.84	1	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	3	0.73	1	26%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.3	4	0.60	0	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	1	0.69	0	26%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	4	0.67	0	12%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	3	1.01	2	27%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.65	1	11%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.41	0	10%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	2	0.42	1	17%	1
VGK M. Stone	1.7	0	0.84	0	25%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	0	0.59	0	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	0	0.40	0	8%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	1	0.65	1	24%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.66	1	24%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.6	2	0.57	2	18%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.41	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	0	0.41	0	20%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.29	1	12%	1
PIT A. Hayes	1.2	5	0.23	0	12%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	4	0.24	1	5%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK C. Smith	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.36	0	14%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	0.9	2	0.27	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.29	0	13%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.27	2	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	0	0.20	1	3%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	1	0.25	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.