WSH beat PIT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.42 expected goals to 2.05. WSH outshot PIT 32 to 19. P. Dubois led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Wilson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 7:42WSHJ. Chychrun0.02 xG
- 2nd 12:08WSHA. Protas0.27 xG
- 3rd 11:29PITB. Rust0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:50WSHP. DuboisPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 18:30WSHB. DuhaimeEN0.80 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.05 xGWSH 4.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:13 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 17:35 | 2:14 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:14 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:46 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:24 | 2:37 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:23 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:47 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:12 | 1:43 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:18 | 1:46 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 23:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:17 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blomqvist | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:41 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 1:46 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:48 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:09 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 14:38 | 0:14 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:50 | 5:59 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:09 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 7:37 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 5:57 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:57 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:31 | 6:11 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 6:14 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 1:43 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:46 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.6, WSH 3.4 | PIT 1, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 26.8, WSH 29.1 | PIT 19, WSH 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 63% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.8 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 7 | 0.73 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.