SEA beat PHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.62 expected goals to 2.27. SEA outshot PHI 32 to 24. M. Beniers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Montour had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. P. Grubauer stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 19:28PHIO. Tippett0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:11SEAT. Kartye0.01 xG
- 2nd 18:57SEAM. Beniers0.19 xG
- 2nd 19:38SEAC. StephensonSH0.20 xG
- 3rd 3:55SEAB. Montour0.00 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.62 xGPHI 2.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:41 | 2:35 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:27 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:31 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:25 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:29 | 1:25 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 2:32 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:41 | 0:54 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:09 | 1:27 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:58 | 0:03 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:04 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:02 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 2:27 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:19 | 1:40 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:35 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 59:57 | Win |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:12 | 2:34 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 5:58 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:49 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:28 | 6:12 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 6:08 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:36 | 5:39 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:52 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 | 1:35 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:26 | 0:17 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:26 | 6:21 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:28 | 1:40 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 59:40 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, PHI 2.9 | SEA 4, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 24.9, PHI 28.6 | SEA 32, PHI 24 |
| Win chance | PHI 51% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.3 | 5 | 0.56 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.6 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.