Game Recap: SEA 3, PIT 2 (OT), November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA3

Final/OTSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

PIT2

SEA beat PIT 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.29. PIT outshot SEA 32 to 21. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Grubauer stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SEA	0	1	1	1	3
PIT	0	1	1	0	2

2nd 1:24SEAM. Marchment0.07 xG
2nd 16:16PITS. Crosby0.19 xG
3rd 5:56PITE. MalkinPP0.03 xG
3rd 12:36SEAM. Beniers0.10 xG
OT 4:10SEAB. Montour0.04 xG

Team Stats

SEAPIT

21Shots on goal32

2.02Expected goals3.29

49Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/4

22Hits16

13Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways20

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.02 xGPIT 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA21 on goal, 3 scored

PIT32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	1	1	2	3	4	0	+2	2	18:38	1:41
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	20:00	2:08
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:22	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:25	2:07
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	19:02	2:08
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:16	1:42
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	5	2	0	0	16:13	2:09
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:40	1:39
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:41	1:41
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:11	0:00
O. Fisker Molgaard	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:10	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	18:56	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	2	21:27	1:40
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	23:33	2:10
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	22:17	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:06	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	32	30	2	.938	64:10	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	21:26	4:51
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:45	4:48
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	15:25	4:25
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	14:50	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:21	4:28
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	2	17:04	3:10
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	16:30	2:42
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:32	2:51
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
S. Poulin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	11:50	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:08	3:05
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:31	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	27:18	4:45
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	24:49	2:55
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	19:46	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	18:24	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:28	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	21	18	3	.857	64:10	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1M. Marchment16:57M. Beniers15:17J. Eberle14:33

Line 2J. Schwartz12:31C. Stephenson13:32E. Tolvanen11:51

Line 3S. Wright10:01B. Catton9:32F. Gaudreau12:56

Line 4R. Winterton8:40T. Kartye7:34O. Molgaard5:10

Pair 1A. Larsson16:21V. Dunn18:22

Pair 2B. Montour16:44R. Lindgren15:35

Pair 3J. Oleksiak11:45R. Evans14:39

PIT

Line 1B. Rust13:03S. Crosby13:33C. Dewar13:12

Line 2K. Hayes12:41A. Mantha13:09E. Malkin13:08

Line 3T. Novak11:18B. Kindel9:58S. Poulin11:50

Line 4J. Koppanen8:24B. Lizotte10:48D. Heinen8:03

Pair 1K. Letang17:54R. Shea16:15

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:28P. Wotherspoon16:01

Pair 3M. Dumba13:28R. Graves12:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.0, PIT 2.9	SEA 3, PIT 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	SEA 26.3, PIT 27.1	SEA 21, PIT 32
Win chance	SEA 51%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT B. Rust	2.4	2	0.79	0	29%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	2	0.50	1	14%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	1	0.97	2	32%	1
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	2	0.75	0	26%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	2	0.59	0	25%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	4	0.71	0	14%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	1	0.63	0	13%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.63	2	24%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	2	0.78	1	24%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	3	0.44	1	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.68	1	25%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.7	2	0.38	0	8%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	3	0.51	0	22%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	1	0.29	1	13%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	3	0.45	0	18%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	2	0.52	0	21%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.71	0	21%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	1	0.30	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.50	0	20%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	1	0.33	1	15%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	3	0.31	0	14%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.22	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.16	0	3%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.16	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	2	0.20	0	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.8	0	0.29	0	10%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	1	0.28	2	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	3	0.20	0	6%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.